Colorado State Predicts Somewhat Below‑Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Citing Likely El Niño

Colorado State University researchers say the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be somewhat quieter than normal, driven mainly by a probable El Niño in the Pacific — but they stress that regional risk remains significant and a single storm can still be devastating.

Key points from the April 9 forecast

• The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State, led by Philip J. Klotzbach, projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic basin. The 1991–2020 averages are 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
• The team estimates an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 90 for 2026, below the 1991–2020 average of 123. ACE is a measure that combines storm number, intensity and duration into a single index of seasonal activity.
• They put the probability of at least one major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) making landfall somewhere along the continental U.S. coastline at 32 percent, below the 43 percent historical average (1880–2020). The Caribbean chance is 35 percent, compared with a 47 percent historical baseline.

Why El Niño matters

El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that alters atmospheric circulation around the globe. For the Atlantic, the most important effect is an increase in upper‑level westerly winds across the Main Development Region — the part of the ocean where many long‑lived hurricanes form.

Those stronger winds raise vertical wind shear, the change in wind speed or direction with height. High shear tends to tilt and disrupt developing storms, making it harder for thunderstorms to organize and intensify into tropical storms and hurricanes. Colorado State anticipates a moderate to strong El Niño during the August–October peak months, a view aligned with guidance from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Sea‑surface temperature patterns also influence the forecast. Colorado State’s maps show near‑normal to slightly cooler waters in the eastern Main Development Region early in 2026, with warmer‑than‑normal anomalies in parts of the western tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Cooler eastern waters can suppress storm formation, while warmer patches closer to the Americas can still support strong storms locally.

Regional probabilities and what they mean

• Continental U.S. coastline (overall): 32% chance of a major hurricane landfall vs. a 43% historical average.
• U.S. East Coast (including Florida peninsula): 15% vs. a 21% historical average.
• Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas): 20% vs. a 27% historical average.
• Caribbean: 35% vs. a 47% historical average.

Those lower probabilities underpin Colorado State’s “somewhat below average” characterization. But the researchers emphasize that these are basin‑scale outlooks: local risk can remain high, and a single storm can define a season for a particular community.

How the April forecast was made

Colorado State’s April outlook combines multiple approaches: a purely statistical model based on historical relationships; statistical–dynamical schemes that incorporate long‑range model output from the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the U.K. Met Office and the Euro‑Mediterranean Center on Climate Change; a machine‑learning model; and an analog‑year approach. The team then applies qualitative adjustments informed by current oceanic and atmospheric patterns.

The forecast is the first major seasonal outlook of the year and is closely watched by emergency managers, insurers and coastal officials. Colorado State has issued April forecasts since the mid‑1990s; its program was started by William Gray in the 1980s and is now run by Klotzbach and colleagues.

Limits to early forecasts

The team cautions that April forecasts have limited skill compared with outlooks issued in late spring and early summer. Scientists point to the spring predictability barrier for ENSO (the El Niño–Southern Oscillation), which makes it harder to pin down the strength and timing of El Niño or La Niña during the spring months. These uncertainties — plus the evolving pattern of Atlantic sea‑surface temperatures — mean the seasonal numbers can change as the year progresses.

The Colorado State group cites analog years for 2026 (2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023) that span a range of outcomes, from relatively quiet to more active seasons. Other forecasting groups, including NOAA, will release their outlooks in the coming weeks; NOAA’s official U.S. forecast typically arrives in May, with further updates from Colorado State in June and later.

Practical takeaways

For residents of hurricane‑prone areas, the early forecast does not alter the basic advice from emergency managers: plan for at least one damaging storm every season. Even below‑average years have produced catastrophic landfalls. The Colorado State outlook suggests a lower likelihood of a widespread, hyperactive season in 2026, but with roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast and a higher chance for the broader Atlantic basin, officials say the expected El Niño should prompt cautious optimism — not complacency.

What to watch next

• Updates from Colorado State in June and during the summer as ENSO and Atlantic temperatures become clearer.
• NOAA’s May seasonal outlook and follow‑up guidance from federal and state emergency management agencies.
• Evolving sea‑surface temperature patterns in the Atlantic and the developing strength and timing of El Niño later this year.

Preparedness remains the best protection against hurricanes: review evacuation routes, update emergency kits, secure property, and follow guidance from local emergency managers as the season approaches.