India bakes in early March as IMD warns of longer, harsher heat season

Delhi normally eases into summer in late March, when woollens finally disappear from markets and ceiling fans begin to hum. This year, the capital skipped the transition.

On March 7, the city’s Safdarjung observatory recorded a maximum temperature of 35.7 degrees Celsius—about 7 degrees above normal for the date and the highest for the first week of March in at least 50 years, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data cited by multiple outlets. A day earlier, the mercury had already climbed to 34.3 C.

From the snow-fed valleys of Himachal Pradesh to the coastal suburbs of Mumbai, thermometers have surged 4 to 12 degrees above normal in early March, turning what is typically a mild month into an early summer. The spike has arrived just days after the IMD warned that most of the country faces above-normal temperatures and more heatwave days during the March–May hot-weather season.

The convergence of an official seasonal alert and a burst of record-breaking warmth is putting India’s power grid, public health systems and agriculture on notice that this year’s heat could last longer—and begin earlier—than usual.

A hotter-than-normal season, officially

In a seasonal outlook issued Feb. 28, the IMD said maximum temperatures from March to May were “very likely to be above normal over most parts of the country,” with only some pockets of northwest and central India projected to see normal or below-normal daytime averages.

Minimum temperatures are also expected to run high. The agency said night-time temperatures were “very likely to be above normal over most parts of the country,” apart from parts of the south peninsula and a few isolated areas.

Of particular concern, the IMD warned that the number of heatwave days is likely to be above normal over “most parts of east and east-central India, many parts of southeast Peninsula and some parts of northwest and west-central India” during the March–May period.

The language of the forecast went beyond technical charts to spell out systemic risks. Increased heatwave conditions “may pose significant risks to public health, water resources, power demand and essential services,” the department said, urging state and district authorities to ensure operational readiness of cooling shelters, adequate drinking water supply and stronger health surveillance. It advised the public to stay hydrated, avoid direct sun exposure during peak hours and take special care of vulnerable groups including the elderly, children and people with chronic illnesses.

For March alone, the IMD had expected maximum temperatures to be normal to below normal over many regions, with higher values over northeast India, adjoining east India, parts of the western Himalayan region, and central and peninsular India. But the first week of the month has already delivered unusual heat across large swaths of the northwest as well.

Record and near-record heat in the first week of March

An IMD bulletin issued March 7 described “heat wave to severe heat wave” conditions over parts of Himachal Pradesh and heatwave conditions in pockets of coastal Andhra Pradesh. The department reported that in the 24 hours ending that morning, day temperatures were 8 to 12 degrees above normal at most places in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, and 3 to 7 degrees above normal in Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Rajasthan.

In the western Himalaya, where early March usually brings a chill, some hill stations logged anomalies more typical of a desert. The Himachal Pradesh meteorological centre reported that Kalpa, a high-altitude town in Kinnaur district, reached 23.5 C—about 14.3 degrees above normal. Keylong, in Lahaul and Spiti, was 12.2 degrees above its usual maximum, at 14.2 C. Several other stations, including Kangra, Bhuntar and Dharamshala, were between 8 and 11 degrees above normal.

Further north, Srinagar touched roughly 24.7 C in early March, around 11 to 12 degrees above the seasonal average, while Jammu crossed 32 C, or about 8 degrees above normal, according to regional weather summaries.

In the plains, the warmth has come on quickly. The IMD noted that many locations in interior Maharashtra, Telangana and central India were already in the 37 C to 41 C range by March 6 and 7. Amravati in Maharashtra recorded 40.8 C. On the west coast, Mumbai’s suburban station passed 38 C on March 4 and 5, with departures of nearly 6 degrees above normal, prompting the season’s first heatwave alert for the city.

The IMD’s short-term forecast said maximum temperatures over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh would remain 8 to 12 degrees above normal through March 9, and 6 to 8 degrees above normal over the plains of northwest India, before a western disturbance brought some relief.

Meteorologists in Delhi and Chandigarh have attributed the spike to a combination of clear skies, strong March sun, dry air and a lack of active western disturbances—the weather systems that usually bring cloud, rain and cooler conditions to north India at this time of year.

Heat on top of a warming trend

The early-season surge follows a string of unusually hot years that have shifted India’s baseline climate.

In 2022, the IMD reported that India experienced its hottest March in 122 years of records, with average maximum temperatures surpassing a previous record set in 2010. April brought prolonged heatwaves across northwest and central India, with some locations topping 45 C. The unusually hot March that year damaged wheat crops in the northern grain belt and contributed to a government decision to curb wheat exports to contain domestic prices.

In 2024, long-lasting heatwaves between April and June led to at least 110 reported heat-stroke deaths and more than 40,000 suspected cases nationwide between March 1 and June 18, according to Health Ministry data cited in national media. India’s peak electricity demand climbed to a record 250 gigawatts at the end of May, driven largely by air-conditioning and cooling loads. In Delhi, the city’s power demand crossed 8,600 megawatts for the first time during a severe June heat spell.

The Ministry of Earth Sciences and the IMD have noted that most of the country’s warmest years have occurred since the mid-2000s, and that both winter (January–February) and pre-monsoon (March–May) seasons have seen significant warming compared with long-term averages.

Power, health and fields under strain

This year’s hot-season outlook and early-March heat raise the prospect of an extended period of high electricity demand, especially in cities where air-conditioner ownership has risen steeply.

Higher and earlier peaks mean power utilities may have to secure additional coal supplies, adjust maintenance schedules and roll out demand-management measures if they hope to avoid blackouts. Past summers have brought coal stock shortages and localized outages when heatwaves coincided with surging demand.

Public health officials are also under pressure. The National Disaster Management Authority’s guidelines on heatwaves, first issued in 2016–17, call on states to prepare heat action plans that include early warnings, public awareness campaigns, training of medical staff, changes to school and work timings, and provision of water and shade for outdoor workers.

Several cities, including Ahmedabad, Nagpur and Hyderabad, have developed such plans. Others, such as Delhi and Mumbai, have partial frameworks that are still being tested and revised. The challenge in 2026 will be whether these systems can be activated in March, rather than waiting until May, when heat alerts have traditionally been issued.

Rural areas face different vulnerabilities. In Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, agronomists have warned that high temperatures during the grain-filling stage can reduce wheat yields. With maximum temperatures already 7 to 12 degrees above normal in parts of the region in early March, farmers and agricultural scientists are watching closely.

In the western Himalaya, horticulture and livestock could be affected if unusual warmth is followed by late cold spells, which can damage blossoms of apples and other fruits and stress animals. Higher temperatures also increase evapotranspiration and can hasten snowmelt, with potential consequences for water availability in downstream river basins later in the pre-monsoon season.

Urban water utilities in many states typically face rising demand and falling reservoir levels as the hot months progress. An earlier and more sustained heat period could intensify that squeeze, especially in growing cities where leakage and informal settlements already strain distribution systems.

Climate drivers and local extremes

International climate drivers offer limited comfort. The IMD said weak La Niña conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific in late February but were expected to weaken, with a transition toward neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions during the season. The Indian Ocean Dipole, another influential pattern, was neutral and forecast to remain so.

Those broad-scale signals shape seasonal tendencies, particularly for the monsoon, but do not rule out intense local heatwaves. Regional circulation patterns, the timing of western disturbances, soil moisture levels and rapidly warming urban landscapes can all combine to produce short but severe hot spells, even when ocean conditions are not strongly tilted toward extremes.

A longer, earlier test

For now, IMD maps are filled with shades of red, and many of the agency’s advisories read more like mid-May bulletins than early-March updates. The department has said it will continue to issue extended-range forecasts and impact-based advisories through the season.

Whether those warnings translate into earlier and more comprehensive action on the ground will determine how disruptive this year’s heat becomes—for the power grid, for farmers and for the millions of people already feeling summer arrive weeks ahead of schedule.