USDA Cuts 2026/27 U.S. Wheat Forecast; Smallest Crop Since 1970/71

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday cut its forecast for the 2026/27 U.S. wheat crop to 1.536 billion bushels, a downward revision that the agency said would leave the country with its smallest wheat harvest since 1970/71.

The change, published in the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, or WASDE, tightened an already snug wheat balance sheet. The report also lowered U.S. wheat ending stocks and trimmed global wheat inventories, reinforcing expectations of tighter supplies and helping explain why grain markets reacted quickly after the release. Market commentary cited in research described sharp wheat price gains, with some accounts reporting limit-up moves after USDA reduced the crop outlook.

USDA said U.S. 2026/27 wheat production fell 7 million bushels from last month’s forecast. “This is the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970/71,” the agency said in WASDE-673, released July 10 and approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.

U.S. wheat supplies were reduced by 22 million bushels from the prior month. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were pegged at 722 million bushels, also down 22 million bushels from last month and down 22% from a year earlier.

The all-wheat yield was raised to 47.9 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from last month, but that increase was more than offset by other changes in the production outlook. Winter wheat production was forecast at 990 million bushels, down 39 million bushels, with reductions centered in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter classes. USDA left the season-average farm price for wheat unchanged at $6.00 per bushel, compared with a prior-year final price of $5.06.

The global wheat outlook also tightened. USDA forecast 2026/27 world wheat supplies at 1,099.1 million tons, down 1.0 million tons from last month. Global ending stocks were cut by 2.6 million tons to 272.8 million. USDA said world production was slightly lower overall, with increases for Russia and Ukraine offset by a reduction for Canada.

Wheat was the clearest headline from the July report, but the update also moved other major crop balances. USDA cut projected 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.8 billion bushels, down 170 million bushels from last month. The agency said that reflected a 125 million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks and a 150 million-bushel increase in 2025/26 feed and residual use, citing the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn yield was unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre, and the season-average farm price was left at $4.40 per bushel. World corn stocks were lowered by 6.0 million tons to 275.3 million.

Elsewhere, USDA raised U.S. soybean production to 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million on higher harvested area, while leaving ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels. In rice, all-rice supplies were cut to 254.9 million hundredweight, production fell to 153.3 million hundredweight — down about 13% from last month — and ending stocks were lowered to 30.9 million hundredweight. The season-average farm price for rice was raised $1.40 to $14.90 per hundredweight.

WASDE is USDA’s closely watched monthly update on U.S. and global crop supply, demand, trade and stock forecasts. The July edition often carries extra weight because it incorporates the department’s June 30 Acreage report and June 30 Grain Stocks report, two benchmark updates that USDA explicitly cited this month as drivers of revisions in corn, rice and oilseeds.