UN-EU Alert: Tropical Cyclone ELEVEN-26 Could Strengthen to Typhoon Before Possible Landfall in Guangdong

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System, a crisis-monitoring platform run by the United Nations and European Commission, issued an orange alert Thursday for Tropical Cyclone ELEVEN-26, warning that forecast models show the system could strengthen to typhoon force before a likely landfall in southeast China. If that forecast holds, GDACS estimates about 17.242 million people in China would be inside areas that could experience Category 1 wind speeds or higher, meaning at least 120 kph.

GDACS said the storm “can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.” The alert is based on projected exposure, not confirmed harm. The 17.2 million figure is a modeled estimate of how many people are inside the forecast wind zone, not a count of people already affected, injured, displaced or evacuated.

The system itself was still a tropical depression early Thursday. In an advisory issued at 0600Z, the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center identified it as Tropical Depression 11W near 17.4 degrees north latitude and 128.4 degrees east longitude, east of the Philippines, with maximum sustained winds of 25 knots, or about 46 kph.

The stronger wind figure highlighted by GDACS — 139 kph — reflects the forecast peak intensity derived from the JTWC outlook, not the storm’s observed strength on Thursday morning. That JTWC forecast showed the depression strengthening over the next 48 to 72 hours to 65 to 75 knots, or about 120 to 139 kph, before weakening over land.

GDACS showed a likely China landfall window of 0600 to 1800 UTC on July 25. Its province-level exposure estimates were concentrated in Guangdong, with about 16.5 million people inside the projected Category 1 wind zone, and a much smaller figure of about 270,000 in Jiangxi.

GDACS works by taking operational cyclone forecasts and overlaying projected wind fields on population maps to estimate how many people could be exposed. That matters in this case because Guangdong is one of China’s most populous and economically important coastal provinces, home to major cities, ports, manufacturing and logistics infrastructure, so even a lower-end typhoon can cause significant disruption if it follows the forecast track.

China’s Central Meteorological Observatory, as reported by official Chinese weather outlets on Thursday, also said a tropical depression had formed east of the Philippines and was expected to strengthen as it moves toward the Guangdong-Fujian coast around July 25-26.

As of the GDACS and JTWC bulletins cited here, there were no confirmed reports in the reviewed sources of damage, casualties, evacuations or transport closures linked to the system.

GDACS says its products are indicative forecast tools and should not replace warnings from national authorities. For residents in the potential path, official forecasts and advisories from China’s meteorological authorities remain the authoritative source for public warnings.