Brandon Dukes appears to win tight Pennsylvania House special election in Butler County

Democrat Brandon Dukes was the apparent winner Tuesday night in a Pennsylvania House special election in a Butler County district that Donald Trump carried by about 18 points in 2024, according to unofficial returns reported by multiple outlets. The night-of totals cited by Axios and others showed Dukes with 8,434 votes, or about 50.2%, to Republican Scott Timko’s 8,346, or about 49.7% — a margin of 88 votes with essentially all precincts counted.

The result was notable because it put a Democrat ahead in a district with a recent, clearly Republican presidential baseline, making it an upset on paper and the latest example Democrats are pointing to as a special-election overperformance. At the same time, special elections are low-turnout contests and are not necessarily predictive of November results.

House District 12 is in Butler County and includes Cranberry Township, Mars, Zelienople, Evans City and Jackson Township. The special election was held to fill the remainder of the term after Republican state Rep. Stephenie Scialabba resigned earlier in 2026, leaving the seat vacant. Dukes is the Democratic nominee, and Timko is the Republican nominee.

The returns remained unofficial Wednesday, and the outcome is still subject to county canvassing and state certification. The reported margin was just above Pennsylvania’s commonly cited 0.5% automatic-recount threshold, though campaigns can still pursue recount or contest options under state law. Reporting has indicated Dukes and Timko are expected to face each other again in the Nov. 3 general election, since the winner of the special serves only out the rest of the current term.

Democrats quickly cast the result as part of a broader pattern in state legislative races. In an Aug. 19 press release, the Democratic National Committee said Dukes’ victory marked the 31st state legislative seat Democrats have flipped since the start of 2025, while Republicans have flipped none. “Last night, Brandon Dukes swung this seat by nearly 20 points from 2024 and showed the nation that when Democrats organize everywhere, we can win anywhere,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said in the release. Independent tallies of such flips can vary, however, depending on methodology, including which contests are counted.