Tornado Watch for Western, Central New York as Storms Threaten Upstate

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center issued a tornado watch for western and central New York on Wednesday evening, warning that “A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible” in a heavily populated stretch of upstate New York. Tornado Watch 645 was issued at 4:40 p.m. EDT and was set to remain in effect until 11 p.m. EDT, covering a broad area that included parts of western and central New York as well as adjacent Lake Erie and Lake Ontario waters.

The watch included a representative swath of upstate counties such as Erie, Chautauqua, Niagara, Monroe, Livingston, Ontario, Onondaga, Oneida, Oswego, Jefferson, Broome, Chemung and Tompkins. The Storm Prediction Center listed the main threats as a few tornadoes, the possibility of a couple of intense tornadoes, scattered damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and scattered large hail, with isolated hail up to 2 inches in diameter. In its watch summary, the center said supercell thunderstorms could produce large hail and tornadoes as they moved east across western and central New York before storms grew into a bowing cluster later in the evening, raising the damaging-wind threat. It added: “A strong tornado appears possible if thunderstorms can remain at least semi-discrete this evening.”

As the watch continued, local warnings followed. The National Weather Service office in Buffalo issued tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings during the evening. In one example, at 7:47 p.m. EDT, NWS Buffalo warned: “At 747 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Geneseo, moving east at 45 mph.” That warning affected parts of Livingston, Monroe and Wyoming counties. The same warning said, “SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.” Other severe thunderstorm warnings in the area also cited winds of 60 to 70 mph and large hail.

A tornado watch means atmospheric conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms to develop. A tornado warning is more urgent: It means a tornado is occurring or imminent, or that radar has identified rotation strong enough that people in the warned area should take shelter immediately. The Storm Prediction Center’s use of the phrase “intense tornadoes possible” signaled an elevated concern for stronger tornadoes in a populous part of upstate New York.

As of the reporting window for this story, there had been no official National Weather Service damage survey confirming a tornado touchdown or assigning a tornado rating. What had been confirmed were active warnings, radar-indicated rotation and a volatile severe-weather setup stretching across western and central New York Wednesday night.