IMF Updates: Raises Global Growth Projections Amid Tariff Concerns

On July 29, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an updated World Economic Outlook, revising its global growth projections upward. The IMF now forecasts a 3.0% growth rate for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, marking increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from its April 2025 projections.

This revision is attributed to stronger-than-expected economic activity, including preemptive purchasing ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff hikes and a decrease in the effective U.S. tariff rate from 24.4% to 17.3%. Despite these positive adjustments, the IMF cautions that growth remains below pre-pandemic averages and highlights ongoing risks such as high tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and rising fiscal deficits.

The IMF also notes that while global inflation is projected to decline gradually, U.S. inflation may remain above target due to the impact of tariffs. Additionally, recent trade agreements with the European Union and Japan, as well as a temporary truce with China, were not factored into the current forecast.

For a comprehensive understanding, refer to the IMF's official press release and the full World Economic Outlook update.