AI to Revolutionize Global Trade, Increase Value by 37% by 2040, Says WTO

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to significantly reshape global trade, potentially increasing its value by up to 37% and boosting global GDP by 13% by 2040, according to the World Trade Organization's (WTO) 2025 World Trade Report released on September 17. The report emphasizes that these gains hinge on the implementation of inclusive policies and investments to bridge existing digital divides.

The WTO's annual report highlights AI's capacity to reduce trade costs and enhance productivity, particularly in sectors such as logistics, compliance, and communication. AI-driven translation tools, for instance, can facilitate faster and more cost-effective communication, enabling small producers and retailers to expand into global markets. This technological advancement could lead to an 11% increase in exports from low-income countries, provided there is substantial improvement in digital infrastructure.

However, the report also cautions that without targeted investments and inclusive policies, AI could exacerbate existing social and economic inequalities. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated, "AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven." She further emphasized the need for a balanced approach, noting, "With the right mix of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies."

To ensure the widespread benefits of AI, the report underscores the importance of predictable trade rules and reduced tariffs on AI-critical raw materials, such as semiconductors. It also highlights the necessity for robust education, retraining, and social support systems to mitigate potential job displacement resulting from AI integration. Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill remarked, "The ongoing political backlash against trade has much to do with underinvestment in education, skills, retraining, and social safety nets during these past three or four decades of globalization. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI."

The release of this report comes amid growing challenges to the multilateral trading system, including rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. The WTO emphasizes that AI could serve as a "bright spot" in this complex environment, offering opportunities for growth and development if managed inclusively.

In conclusion, the WTO's 2025 World Trade Report presents a comprehensive analysis of AI's transformative potential in global trade. While the projections are optimistic, the report stresses the critical need for inclusive policies and investments to ensure that the benefits of AI are equitably distributed across all economies.