WMO says El Niño likely this summer; governments urged to prepare

The World Meteorological Organization said Tuesday that El Niño conditions are developing and urged governments to prepare now, warning that the climate pattern raises the risk of widespread heat and more disruptive rainfall extremes in the months ahead.

In an update published June 2 titled “WMO: Prepare for El Niño,” the U.N. weather agency said there is an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June through August 2026. It said the probability of El Niño continuing until at least November 2026 is near or above 90%. Above-average temperatures are forecast “nearly everywhere” for June through August, according to the WMO’s consensus seasonal outlook, which draws on forecasts from major meteorological centers worldwide.

The agency said El Niño typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns. It warned that the developing event could exacerbate drought, heavy rainfall and heat waves on land and in the ocean. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres tied that threat to disaster readiness, urging countries to strengthen warning systems under the U.N.’s Early Warnings for All initiative, launched in 2022 to ensure everyone is covered by multi-hazard early warning systems by the end of 2027. “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” Guterres said.

WMO said El Niño’s typical seasonal effects include increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia. Drier conditions are more commonly associated with El Niño in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. The agency cautioned that these are broad seasonal teleconnections — the large-scale climate links associated with El Niño — not country-by-country certainties.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said Celeste Saulo, the WMO secretary-general.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Those ocean changes can shift temperature, rainfall and storm patterns far beyond the Pacific, affecting agriculture, water supplies, public health, disaster preparedness and power demand, depending on the region. That makes advance planning especially important for governments and emergency agencies as they brace for possible crop stress, flooding, wildfire risk, disease outbreaks linked to heat or rainfall, and strain on electricity systems.

The WMO stressed an important caveat: There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events. But El Niño is now unfolding in a warmer world, and a hotter atmosphere and ocean can amplify its impacts, worsening heat and rainfall extremes. For recent context, the agency said the 2023-24 El Niño was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024.