WHO Projects Global Cancer Cases Could Reach Nearly 35 Million by 2050, Warns of Growing Inequities

New cancer cases worldwide are projected to rise from 20.6 million in 2024 to nearly 35 million a year by 2050, the World Health Organization said Wednesday, warning that the increase will fall most heavily on countries that already have the weakest access to prevention, diagnosis and treatment.

The estimate comes from WHO’s Global Status Report on Cancer 2026, produced with the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the WHO cancer agency. In a news release published July 8, WHO said cancer already causes about 9.8 million deaths a year, or close to 10 million, based on international estimates compiled through IARC’s Global Cancer Observatory.

WHO and IARC said the expected rise is being driven mainly by demographic change: populations are growing and living longer, which means more people are reaching ages when cancer is more common. The report also points to continued exposure to preventable risks, including tobacco, alcohol, high body mass index, physical inactivity, infections, unhealthy diets and air pollution. The projection does not mean individual cancer risk is simply set to double; it reflects what happens if current age-specific cancer rates are applied to future population estimates.

The agencies said the burden is already sharply unequal. Five-year breast cancer survival is about 87% in high-income countries, compared with about 42% in low-income countries. And only about 28% of countries include a minimum cancer management package in universal health coverage benefit plans, meaning fewer than one in three countries guarantee a basic set of cancer services through their health systems.

The report also underscores how much of the toll could be reduced through prevention. WHO and IARC said earlier this year that about 37% of cancer cases in 2022 were linked to preventable causes. One example is cervical cancer prevention: while 85% of countries have added HPV vaccination to national immunization programs, first-dose coverage among girls is still only about 31% in 2026, well below WHO targets.

“Cancer is a deeply personal disease that touches nearly all of us. But whether a person survives cancer should never depend on where they were born or what they earn,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in the release. “The inequities documented in this report are not inevitable; they are the consequence of choices, and they can be reversed through stronger and unified action.”

WHO said some capacity has improved, with 82% of countries now reporting national cancer control plans, up from 50% in 2010. But the agencies said plans alone will not close the widening gap between need and access. The nearly 35 million figure for 2050, drawn from IARC’s Cancer Tomorrow projections, is a forward estimate based largely on today’s age-specific cancer rates and future population change, not a fixed outcome. WHO said stronger prevention policies, broader vaccination coverage and more reliable access to early diagnosis and treatment could change that trajectory.