USDA’s August WASDE: Near-Record U.S. Corn Crop but Tighter Corn and Wheat Supplies

The U.S. Agriculture Department projected an enormous corn crop for 2026-27 on Thursday, yet still tightened its outlook for domestic corn and wheat supplies and raised expected farm prices for both crops as export demand remained firm and overseas weather and shipping problems reshaped trade flows.

The figures came in USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, known as WASDE, a benchmark update closely watched by farmers, traders and policymakers because it resets forecasts for production, use, exports and inventories for major crops. The August edition carries extra weight because it includes the season’s first survey-based yield forecasts for corn and soybeans. The report header said: “WASDE - 674 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board August 12, 2026.”

For corn, USDA forecast 2026-27 U.S. production at 16.0 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from last month. Even with that increase, the agency’s first survey-based yield forecast came in at 180.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels from last month’s figure. USDA said, “This would be the second largest U.S. corn harvest on record.” At the same time, it lowered beginning stocks by 75 million bushels to 1.9 billion because of stronger 2025-26 exports, then raised total 2026-27 use by 75 million bushels to 16.3 billion. Corn exports were increased by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion, and ending stocks were cut by 137 million bushels to 1.7 billion. USDA raised its season-average farm price forecast by 10 cents to $4.50 per bushel.

Wheat moved in a similar direction, though on a smaller production base. USDA projected 2026-27 U.S. wheat production at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million bushels from last month. Ending stocks were also reduced, by 5 million bushels to 717 million bushels, which USDA said is 22% below last year. The agency raised its season-average farm price forecast for wheat by 20 cents to $6.20 per bushel.

Part of the explanation was abroad. USDA said world wheat supplies for 2026-27 were pegged at 1,099.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month, while consumption rose to 826.3 million tons and trade fell to 212.7 million tons. Global wheat ending stocks edged up to 273.3 million tons. The agency cited reduced production in the European Union, the United Kingdom and Brazil, and said the EU and UK crops were hurt by prolonged above-average temperatures during grain fill. It also lowered Russia and Ukraine exports because of logistical disruptions tied to increased conflict in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea. In corn, USDA raised global coarse grain production to 1.593 billion tons. Foreign corn production was increased for Russia, Ukraine and Zambia, partly offset by a reduction in the EU caused by extreme heat and dryness. Global corn stocks were put at 274.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last month.

Soybeans and rice were secondary takeaways. USDA raised 2026-27 U.S. soybean production by 44 million bushels to 4.5 billion on higher harvested area and a first survey-based yield forecast of 52.7 bushels per acre. Soybean crush was raised by 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion, ending stocks were lifted by 10 million bushels to 320 million, and the season-average soybean price was unchanged at $11.40 per bushel. For rice, USDA forecast production at 158.4 million cwt, up 5.1 million cwt, and increased ending stocks to 36.0 million cwt, though that was still 33% below a year earlier. The rice farm price was unchanged at $14.90 per cwt.

As it does every month, WASDE reset the market’s baseline for global crop supply and demand. This month’s central message was the tension inside the numbers: even with very large U.S. production prospects, USDA still saw tighter grain balance sheets for corn and wheat.