Nor’easter to Slam NYC–New Jersey–Long Island This Weekend With Coastal Flooding and High Winds

NOAA and the National Weather Service warned Friday that a rapidly strengthening nor’easter is likely to bring damaging winds, heavy rain and dangerous coastal flooding to the Northeast this weekend, with the New York City-New Jersey-Long Island corridor facing the most serious impacts.

In a Sept. 25 news release, NOAA and the NWS said a rapidly deepening storm along the East Coast is expected to affect the I-95 corridor from the Mid-Atlantic through New England on Saturday and Sunday. The agency said waterfront and shoreline communities in New Jersey, New York City and Long Island are at the greatest risk for the strongest wind gusts and widespread coastal flooding. “The New York City metro area and New Jersey may be especially impacted by this storm,” the release said.

The main hazards are expected to build through the weekend, with some warnings beginning Friday evening. Forecasters said the worst flooding is most likely during the daytime high-tide cycles Saturday and Sunday, when prolonged onshore winds are expected to push water into vulnerable coastal areas. In addition to coastal flooding, the storm is forecast to bring heavy rain, strong wind, high surf and dangerous beach conditions.

The NWS office in New York issued coastal flood products covering parts of the metro area, including a Coastal Flood Warning for Kings County, which includes Brooklyn, and southern Queens from 6 p.m. Friday to 6 p.m. Sunday EDT. The warning said, “For the Coastal Flood Warning, one to two feet of inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline.” Forecast pages for the metro area also showed a Coastal Flood Warning along with a Wind Advisory, High Surf Advisory and Rip Current Statement.

Farther inland, flooding concerns are not limited to the immediate oceanfront. NOAA and the NWS said water may also extend inland along tidal rivers and bays, a key concern in a region where roads, transit approaches, parking areas, businesses, parks and low-lying neighborhoods sit close to tidal waterways.

Rainfall is also expected to be significant. The Weather Prediction Center, the NWS unit that issues national rainfall outlooks, placed parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, with widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches expected in the highlighted period. In a Sept. 25 discussion, the center said, “As a powerful nor'easter continues to approach and then stall east of New Jersey and south of Long Island, the potential for heavy rainfall is likely to increase substantially along portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England coasts.”

That stalled track is also expected to worsen marine conditions and prolong the onshore flow driving the flood threat. NWS marine forecasts showed gale and storm warnings offshore, with some forecasts calling for gusts up to 55 knots and seas of about 18 to 20 feet in the most exposed waters. Local forecast discussions also indicated onshore wind gusts of 30 to more than 50 mph, strongest along exposed shorelines of Long Island, southeastern New England and parts of New Jersey.

A nor’easter is a strong coastal storm that typically brings persistent onshore winds, heavy precipitation, high surf and coastal flooding to the East Coast. That matters especially in the New York-New Jersey-Long Island corridor, where dense development along bays, tidal rivers and the shoreline can spread impacts well beyond the beach.

Forecasters urged residents to keep checking for updates as the storm evolves. The latest warnings, advisories and local forecast information are available at weather.gov and through local National Weather Service offices.