As of Nov. 5, Ballotpedia Says Democrats’ Senate Gains Qualify as ‘Wave’; House Gains Still Provisional

Ballotpedia said Democrats’ post-election Senate gains were already large enough to qualify as a “wave election” in its Nov. 5 analysis, even as their House gains — substantial on their own — had not yet met that mark in Ballotpedia’s snapshot because dozens of races remained uncalled.

The picture remained provisional. Ballotpedia said Democrats had gained at least seven Senate seats and at least 30 House seats as of its Nov. 5 tally, but several contests were still unresolved. Media race calls and projection-desk tallies are not the same as state-certified results, and outstanding ballots and canvassing can still change margins.

In the Senate, Ballotpedia said Democrats had gained at least seven seats, enough for at least a 54-44 majority, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled. By Ballotpedia’s metric, a net loss of at least seven Senate seats by the president’s party places an election in the top 20% of Senate seat swings against that party, which it uses to classify a wave election.

That made the Senate showing notable even by midterm standards, when the president’s party often loses seats. The breadth of Democratic gains in states that have often been difficult terrain for the party stood out. The Associated Press separately reported that Democrats had won enough races to take control of the chamber and were holding at least 54 of the Senate’s 100 seats. AP identified Democratic pickups in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina.

Two Senate races could still alter the final margin. In Alaska, which uses ranked-choice voting, Ballotpedia cited a Nov. 4 New York Times first-choice tally showing Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola at 48.2% and incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 47.9%. In Mississippi, Ballotpedia cited a Nov. 4 New York Times tally showing Democrat Scott Colom leading incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 65 votes; Ballotpedia also noted that Mississippi has no statutory recount procedure.

In the House, Ballotpedia said Democrats had gained control of at least 30 districts, for a chamber breakdown of at least 233 Democrats and 138 Republicans, with 64 races still uncalled. Of those uncalled races, Ballotpedia said 12 were in Democratic-held districts and 52 were in Republican-held districts, a split suggesting the party’s final margin could still grow.

Outside projection desks pointed to a potentially larger House majority, though those numbers also were not official results. Ballotpedia cited Decision Desk HQ projections showing Democrats on track for 249 seats, while NBC projections ran as high as 255.

Even without meeting Ballotpedia’s wave threshold in the House at that moment, the gains were historically significant. Ballotpedia said seven of the House flips already counted were open seats and 23 were defeats of Republican incumbents. If that total holds, it would be the second-highest number of House incumbents defeated since at least 2014.

Ballotpedia also pointed to the map itself. It said mid-decade redistricting created a net nine new congressional districts across nine states. Based on the 2024 presidential results, those districts would have favored Donald Trump, but Ballotpedia calculated Democrats were poised to gain 17 seats across those states if current leads held.

If Democrats hold control of both chambers, they would take the committee gavels and Congress’ oversight powers. President Donald Trump would still retain veto power.