EIA Forecasts Alaska Oil Production to Climb 13% in 2027, Highest Since 2014

Alaska crude oil production is expected to climb again in 2027, rising 13% to about 505,000 barrels per day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday, a level that would mark the state’s highest annual output since 2014.

The forecast, published in an EIA Today in Energy item summarizing the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, follows an expected increase of 23,000 barrels per day, or 6%, in 2026. EIA said the gains are being driven by two North Slope developments: ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project and Pikka Phase 1, operated by Santos with Repsol as a partner. “After decades of decline, crude oil production in Alaska is growing, driven by two projects on Alaska’s North Slope,” EIA said.

Nuna reached first oil on Dec. 17, 2024. ConocoPhillips has said the project is expected to produce about 20,000 barrels per day at peak on a gross basis. Pikka Phase 1 began producing in May 2026 and entered continuous operations in June. Company materials and industry reporting have cited a plateau target of about 80,000 barrels per day gross for Pikka Phase 1, making it the larger of the two new sources behind the statewide increase.

EIA said the ramp-up is already showing up in recent production data. Alaska crude output in the third quarter of 2026 rose 4% as Pikka came online, the agency said, marking the state’s first third-quarter increase in more than 40 years. That stands out because Alaska production typically declines in late summer, when oil fields usually undergo seasonal maintenance.

“In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect a 23,000 barrels per day (b/d) (6%) increase in 2026, followed by a 60,000 b/d (13%) rise in 2027,” EIA said. “At a forecast 505,000 b/d in 2027, output would be the most since 2014.”

Even with that increase, Alaska remains a relatively small contributor to overall U.S. supply growth. In the same November 2026 outlook, EIA projected total U.S. crude production at a record 14.3 million barrels per day in 2027.

The Alaska forecast is notable because it interrupts a much longer trend. State crude production peaked near 2 million barrels per day in the late 1980s and then declined for decades. The recent gains do not reflect a broad rebound across aging Alaska fields so much as new North Slope output from Nuna and Pikka offsetting legacy declines.

The figures are forecasts, not realized 2027 production. They come from EIA’s November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 10, with model assumptions and other inputs finalized Nov. 5.