IPCC Chair at COP31 Says AR7 Timing Dispute Risks Leaving 2028 Global Stocktake Without Key Science

IPCC Chair Jim Skea used a COP31 Presidency keynote in Antalya on Friday to make a pointed case that climate negotiations and implementation efforts must stay grounded in science, even as the U.N. climate science body he leads remains stuck in a dispute over the timing of its next major reports.

The appearance carried added weight because COP31 has been framed around implementation and keeping 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does not negotiate policy, but its assessments are the scientific foundation governments use in those talks. That makes the unresolved timetable for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report, or AR7, more than an internal scheduling issue: It could shape what scientific input is available for the second Global Stocktake, the formal check on collective progress under the Paris Agreement that is due to conclude in late 2028.

Skea was listed as the keynote speaker for a COP31 Presidency special event titled “COP31 Presidency Event: Science, Solutions and Keeping 1.5°C Within Reach.” The session appeared on the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change program for Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. Antalya time at Special Event Room 1 in the Blue Zone of the Antalya Expo Center. It was organized by the COP31 Presidency in collaboration with Australia’s Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

In a published excerpt from the keynote page, Skea referred back to a message he had delivered at COP31’s opening session: that climate action must be guided by science. As reported in IISD/ENB coverage of that opening, Skea said, “Climate action without climate science is like a ship without a rudder.”

That message lands at an awkward moment for the IPCC. Skea, who was elected chair in July 2023 for the AR7 cycle, has also publicly acknowledged the risks of the current deadlock over when the panel’s three working-group reports will be released. As reported by The Climate Watch from COP31 remarks, he said, “It is no secret that IPCC faces operational challenges and reputational risks from the current impasse on the timeline for our three working group reports.”

The timing matters because governments want those working-group assessments — the reports that review the latest physical science, climate impacts and adaptation, and emissions-cutting pathways — in time to inform GST2. The IPCC agreed in January 2024 that the AR7 synthesis report would be published in 2029. But it has not resolved the schedule for the three working-group reports that come first.

That unresolved question has become a substantive COP31 issue because countries are not simply debating long-term goals; they are trying to move into implementation while relying on current, credible scientific advice. A delayed assessment schedule could leave governments without the full IPCC evidence base many want before the next stocktake closes.

At a summit centered on action, Skea’s keynote was a reminder that delivery and science are not separate tracks. The politics of implementation may dominate COP31, but the IPCC chair’s appearance underscored that policy ambition — and the timing of key decisions — still depends on credible, timely science.