As Canada approaches its federal election on April 28, 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party leads in the polls, positioning itself for a potential majority government. Carney, who transitioned from a distinguished career in central banking to politics, is campaigning on a platform aimed at reducing Canada's economic dependence on the United States amid escalating trade tensions.

Recent polling data indicates the Liberals hold 43.7% support, with the Conservative Party at 36.3% and the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 10.7%. These figures suggest the Liberals could secure a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons. Additionally, election officials reported a record 2 million votes cast on the first day of advance polling, indicating a potentially higher overall turnout than the 62.3% recorded in 2021.

Carney's campaign focuses on restructuring Canada's economy to lessen reliance on the U.S., particularly in response to tariffs and annexation rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump. Speaking in Prince Edward Island, Carney emphasized the need for economic independence, stating, "Our response must be to build a strong economy and a more secure Canada. President Trump claims that Canada isn’t a real country. He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen."

The Liberal platform proposes C$130 billion in new spending over four years, forecasting a C$62.3 billion deficit in 2025/26. Carney has pledged to reduce government spending growth from 9% to 2% annually without cutting transfers to provinces or individuals, aiming to balance the operating budget within three years. The plan introduces a novel split between operating and capital expenditures and projects a gradual reduction in the federal budget deficit from 1.96% of GDP in 2025-26 to 1.35% by 2028-29. Additionally, Carney committed to raising defense spending above the NATO target of 2% of GDP, focusing on transatlantic security collaboration.

In contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has adopted populist rhetoric similar to Trump's, focusing on tax cuts, oil pipeline approvals, and defunding the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC). However, Poilievre's perceived alignment with Trump has become a liability, as Trump's antagonistic behavior has alienated many Canadians.

The first major debate of the campaign took place in French in Montreal, where Carney and Poilievre faced off. Carney emphasized his economic crisis management experience and positioned himself as best equipped to confront U.S. President Donald Trump amid rising tariffs and annexation threats. Observers noted that Carney exceeded expectations despite his limited French, while Poilievre may have missed a chance to win over undecided voters.

Election officials reported a record 2 million votes cast on the first day of advance polling, indicating a potentially higher overall turnout than the 62.3% recorded in 2021.

As the election date approaches, the outcome will hinge on voter turnout and the effectiveness of each party's campaign strategies. The Liberals' focus on economic independence and defense spending, contrasted with the Conservatives' populist approach, presents Canadians with distinct choices for the nation's future direction.