Global CEOs Forecast M&A Resurgence in 2025 Under Trump Administration

Global CEOs are signaling a robust resurgence in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity for 2025, buoyed by the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump and anticipated pro-business policies. An EY-Parthenon survey conducted between November and December 2024 reveals that 56% of CEOs plan to actively pursue M&A initiatives this year, a significant increase from 37% in September 2024. Notably, 60% of respondents anticipate deals exceeding $10 billion, indicating a strong recovery from the 2023 downturn.

The survey, encompassing 1,200 global CEOs, highlights a surge in business confidence, with 73.5% expressing optimism about growth prospects post-election, up from 70.5% in September. This heightened confidence is largely attributed to expectations of pro-business policies and lower U.S. borrowing costs under the new administration.

Sectors such as real estate, technology, and consumer products are poised for significant M&A activity. The real estate sector anticipates policy changes that may stimulate investment in property markets. In technology, the rapid pace of digital transformation is prompting firms to acquire complementary businesses. Consumer products companies are seeking growth through acquisitions in response to shifts in consumer behavior.

Geographically, the top investment destinations identified are Canada, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Germany. These countries are viewed as attractive due to their stable economies and favorable business environments.

Financial institutions are also anticipating a surge in dealmaking. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has expressed openness to acquisitions in the asset and wealth management sectors, emphasizing a highly selective approach. He noted, "If we could find things that could accelerate our asset and wealth management journey, we would consider them." Solomon also commented on the potential positive influence of President Trump's growth-oriented administration on the regulatory environment, albeit acknowledging the current policy landscape's uncertainty.

Private equity firms are under pressure to deploy capital, with a record $2.6 trillion in unspent funds as of 2024. This "dry powder" is likely to drive significant M&A activity, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and cloud security.

The anticipated uptick in M&A activity marks a recovery from the 2023 slump, where global deal volumes were subdued due to economic uncertainties. The current optimism reflects a broader trend of resilience and adaptability among global businesses.

Increased M&A activity can stimulate economic growth by fostering corporate expansion and job creation. However, a surge in large-scale deals may lead to industry consolidation, impacting competition and innovation. The expected increase in megadeals could also attract regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning antitrust laws and market dominance.

As companies navigate the evolving political and economic landscape, strategic acquisitions are poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the corporate world in 2025 and beyond.