Russia's Wheat Exports Hit a 17-Year Low Amid Weather and Economic Challenges

In July 2025, Russia's wheat exports plummeted to their lowest levels since 2008, with shipments estimated between 2.0 and 2.6 million tons—a significant decline from 3.67 million tons in July 2024. This downturn is attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions, logistical challenges, and economic factors.

The sharp decrease in wheat exports underscores the multifaceted challenges facing Russia's agricultural sector. Unseasonable weather has delayed harvesting, while logistical issues at Black Sea ports and economic factors such as low global prices and a strong ruble have compounded the situation. In response, the Russian government has implemented measures to bolster agricultural exports, including reducing the grain export tax to zero.

In April 2025, a severe hailstorm struck Stavropol, Russia's third-largest wheat-producing region, damaging crops and contributing to the delayed harvest. Additionally, delays in crop arrival at Black Sea terminals and slow processing of export declarations have disrupted shipments, leading to demurrage charges from shippers. Farmers are also withholding crops in anticipation of higher prices, influenced by low global prices and a strong ruble.

In July 2025, the Russian government reduced the grain export tax to zero to support the sector. President Vladimir Putin has set a goal to increase agricultural exports by 50% by 2030.

The decline in Russian wheat exports may lead to increased global wheat prices and prompt major importers like Egypt, Turkey, and Bangladesh to seek alternative suppliers. The reduction in export tax and other government measures aim to stabilize the domestic market and support farmers.

While Russia anticipates a 4% increase in its 2025 grain harvest to 135 million tons and foresees wheat exports rising to 45 million tons this season, the current export decline highlights the vulnerabilities in the agricultural sector. The effectiveness of government interventions and the resilience of the global wheat market remain to be seen in the coming months.