India Braces for Above-Average Monsoon Rainfall in September 2025

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-average monsoon rainfall for September 2025, projecting approximately 109% of the 50-year average of 167.9 mm. This follows a 5% above-normal rainfall recorded in August. While the surplus rainfall is expected to benefit agriculture and water resources, it also raises concerns about potential adverse effects on summer-sown crops nearing harvest.

The monsoon season, spanning June to September, is vital for India's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering about 70% of the annual rainfall essential for replenishing aquifers and supporting agriculture. Approximately half of India's farmland relies on monsoon rains due to the lack of irrigation facilities. The IMD's forecast indicates that most regions will experience increased rainfall, except for the northeastern states and southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Above-normal rainfall can have both positive and negative effects on agriculture. Adequate rainfall improves soil moisture, benefiting the sowing and growth of Kharif crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton. Favorable monsoon conditions can lead to higher yields, boosting rural incomes and stimulating the local economy. However, excessive rainfall can cause flooding, leading to crop damage, soil erosion, and infrastructure loss. For instance, in August 2025, Punjab experienced severe floods affecting over 1,400 villages and submerging more than 3,71,475 acres of farmland. Prolonged wet conditions can also increase the incidence of crop diseases, reducing quality and yield.

While most regions are expected to receive above-average rainfall, the northeastern states and southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala may experience below-normal rainfall. This uneven distribution can lead to drought conditions in some areas, affecting crop production and water availability.

Climate change has been linked to more erratic and intense monsoon patterns, resulting in extreme rainfall events and dry spells. This variability increases the risk of floods, landslides, and droughts, posing challenges to agriculture and infrastructure. In May 2025, the Indian government launched the Bharat Forecasting System (BFS), a high-resolution weather prediction system developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Operating on a 6-kilometer grid, the BFS aims to enhance the prediction of monsoon patterns, cyclones, and other extreme weather events, supporting disaster management and agricultural planning.

The forecasted above-average monsoon rainfall in September 2025 presents a complex scenario for India. While it offers opportunities for agricultural growth and water resource replenishment, it also necessitates preparedness for potential adverse effects such as flooding and crop damage. Effective planning and adaptive measures are essential to harness the positive aspects while mitigating the negatives.