WMO Predicts Potential Return of La Niña Conditions This Winter

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced a potential return of La Niña conditions, with a 55% likelihood of development between September and November, increasing to 60% for October to December. La Niña, characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, can influence global weather patterns, potentially leading to increased risks of floods and droughts, which can impact agricultural production. Despite La Niña's typical cooling effect, global temperatures are still expected to remain above average due to ongoing climate change. (wmo.int)

La Niña is a climate phenomenon that involves the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This cooling affects atmospheric circulation, leading to significant changes in weather patterns worldwide. Historically, La Niña events have been associated with increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others, impacting agriculture, water resources, and economies globally.

The WMO's latest forecasts indicate a 55% chance of La Niña conditions developing between September and November 2025, with the probability rising to 60% for the October to December period. Neutral conditions have persisted since March 2025, but current projections suggest a shift towards La Niña in the coming months. (wmo.int)

La Niña events can have widespread effects on global weather patterns:

• Agriculture: Changes in rainfall and temperature patterns can reduce crop yields, affecting food security. Regions like East Africa may experience loss of staple crops, exacerbating food insecurity. (developmentaid.org)

• Public Health: Increased flooding can promote the spread of infectious diseases such as dengue and cholera, especially in vulnerable regions with fragile health infrastructures. (developmentaid.org)

• Commodity Prices: Weather-related disruptions from La Niña contribute to price volatility in agricultural commodities. Droughts or excessive rains can lead to supply shortages, driving up prices for affected crops such as coffee, soybeans, and wheat. (govfacts.org)

The previous La Niña event, which began in December 2024, was weak and short-lived, lasting only a few months before transitioning to neutral conditions. This followed an unusually long-lasting La Niña event that spanned three years and ended in 2023. (public.wmo.int)

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the importance of seasonal forecasts, stating that they "translate into millions of dollars of economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy, health, and transport and have saved thousands of lives when used to guide preparedness and response actions." (wmo.int)

The potential return of La Niña, coupled with the ongoing challenges of climate change, underscores the need for proactive measures to mitigate its impacts. Stakeholders in agriculture, public health, and economic sectors are advised to stay informed and prepared for potential disruptions in the coming months.