WMO Predicts Return of La Niña Conditions by Late 2025

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced a significant likelihood of La Niña conditions developing between September and November 2025, with probabilities increasing from 55% to 60% for the October to December period. La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has the potential to influence global weather patterns, leading to increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others.

Despite La Niña's typical cooling effect, global temperatures are expected to remain above average due to ongoing climate change. In August 2025, the North Pacific and North Atlantic seas experienced record-high sea surface temperatures, contributing to extreme weather events globally. The WMO has also predicted that, for the first time, global average temperatures could temporarily approach or exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years (2025-2029).

La Niña events have diverse effects worldwide:

• North America: Typically, La Niña brings drier-than-normal conditions to the southern United States, particularly in the Southwest, leading to droughts and wildfires. Conversely, the northern states, including the Pacific Northwest, may experience colder and wetter-than-usual conditions.

• South America: La Niña often leads to drier-than-normal conditions along the western coast, contributing to droughts in countries like Peru and Ecuador. This can exacerbate water scarcity and food security challenges in the region.

• Asia and Oceania: La Niña tends to bring wetter-than-usual conditions to Southeast Asia and Australia, which can lead to flooding, crop damage, and an increased risk of cyclones in the region. In Australia, La Niña is often associated with above-average rainfall, which can lead to flooding in some areas.

• Africa: Eastern and southern Africa are susceptible to droughts during El Niño events, which can result in food shortages and humanitarian crises.

The development of La Niña conditions can have significant social and economic impacts:

• Agriculture: Changes in precipitation patterns can affect crop yields, leading to food shortages and price volatility.

• Water Resources: Regions experiencing drought may face water scarcity, affecting both drinking water supplies and irrigation for agriculture.

• Disaster Preparedness: Increased risks of flooding, droughts, and cyclones necessitate enhanced disaster preparedness and response strategies.

By understanding the potential development of La Niña conditions and their associated impacts, stakeholders can better prepare for and mitigate the effects on various sectors and communities worldwide.