WTO Report Highlights AI's Impact on Future Global Trade

The World Trade Organization (WTO) released its annual World Trade Report on September 17, 2025, highlighting the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in global trade. The report projects that by 2040, AI could increase the value of global trade by 34–37% and boost global GDP by 12–13%, provided that digital infrastructure gaps are addressed.

The WTO's 2025 World Trade Report underscores AI's capacity to revolutionize global commerce, emphasizing the need for inclusive policies to ensure equitable benefits and prevent the exacerbation of existing inequalities.

The report forecasts that AI could lead to a 34–37% increase in global trade and a 12–13% rise in global GDP by 2040. These projections are based on scenarios where low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50% and adopt AI more widely.

AI is expected to lower trade costs by enhancing efficiency in logistics, regulatory compliance, and communication. For instance, AI-driven translation technologies can make communication faster and more cost-effective, particularly benefiting small producers and retailers by enabling them to expand into global markets.

The report highlights that AI-powered translation tools could enable small producers in low-income countries to compete more effectively in global markets, potentially increasing exports by up to 11%, provided there is improved digital infrastructure.

While the potential benefits of AI in global trade are substantial, the WTO report also cautions about possible negative consequences.

Without inclusive policies and investments, AI could widen existing social and economic disparities. The report emphasizes the necessity for robust education, retraining, and social support systems to address potential job displacement resulting from AI integration.

The WTO underscores the importance of open and predictable trade policies. The number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has climbed sharply over time, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies. Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45% in some low-income economies.

To harness AI's potential while mitigating its risks, the WTO report recommends:

• Investment in Education and Training: Developing robust education and retraining programs to equip the workforce with skills relevant to an AI-driven economy.

• Infrastructure Development: Enhancing digital infrastructure, especially in low-income countries, to facilitate AI adoption and integration into global trade.

• International Cooperation: Fostering global collaboration to establish standards and regulations that promote inclusive growth and prevent the monopolization of AI benefits by a few economies.

The release of this report comes amid growing challenges to the multilateral trading system, including rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. The WTO's emphasis on AI's potential suggests a strategic focus on leveraging technological advancements to revitalize global trade and address contemporary economic challenges.

The WTO's 2025 World Trade Report highlights AI's potential to significantly boost global trade and GDP by 2040. However, it also cautions that without inclusive policies and investments, AI could exacerbate existing inequalities. The report calls for strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and international cooperation to ensure that AI's benefits are broadly shared across all economies.