China's 15th Five-Year Plan Prioritizes Technological Self-Reliance Amid Global Tensions

In late October 2025, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) unveiled the draft for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), emphasizing "technological self-reliance and self-strengthening" as a primary objective. This marks a significant shift in China's economic planning, reflecting its response to escalating global trade tensions and export controls.

The plan aims to achieve substantial advancements in basic research and original innovation, targeting rapid breakthroughs in key technologies across priority sectors. This initiative underscores China's ambition to reduce dependence on foreign technology and bolster its position as a global leader in high-tech industries.

Background and Context

China's Five-Year Plans are strategic blueprints outlining the country's economic and social development goals. The 15th Five-Year Plan focuses on achieving significant advancements in basic research and original innovation, with rapid breakthroughs in key technologies of priority areas.

This strategic shift is seen as a response to increasing global trade tensions and export controls, particularly from the United States. In October 2022, the U.S. imposed export controls to halt China's progress in AI by cutting access to advanced American-designed computer chips. Subsequently, Japan and the Netherlands also restricted semiconductor equipment exports to China. In retaliation, China blocked mergers with U.S. semiconductor companies, banned Micron chips in critical infrastructure, and restricted exports of key materials like gallium and germanium.

Key Objectives and Strategies

The plan aims to develop a modern industrial system and accelerate efforts to become more self-reliant in technology. This includes strengthening original innovation and making breakthroughs in core technologies in key fields such as integrated circuits, industrial machinery, and high-end instruments. The plan also emphasizes promoting deep integration between scientific and industrial innovation, advancing the coordinated development of education, science and technology, and talent, and further boosting the construction of the Digital China initiative.

Additionally, China intends to expand the use of artificial intelligence across various sectors, including logistics, manufacturing, healthcare, and urban planning. The goal is to create a self-sustaining technology chain, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

Social and Economic Implications

The emphasis on technological self-reliance reflects China's ambition to reduce dependence on foreign technology and bolster its position as a global leader in high-tech industries. This strategic shift is part of a broader strategy to transition from an export-driven economy to one anchored in domestic consumption and high-quality manufacturing. Despite record-high export contributions in 2024, domestic spending remains low. The new plan seeks to bolster household spending, improve social security, and support the real estate sector to drive demand for domestically produced tech goods.

Historical Context

Ten years after its launch, China's "Made in China 2025" plan has achieved significant progress despite global scrutiny and geopolitical tensions. By 2024, China had surpassed certain targets: for example, its EV sales reached nearly 11 million, and companies like DJI dominate the global drone market. The country also controls two-thirds of the world's automotive battery supply and leads in solar panel production and new materials. However, it has struggled in complex sectors like semiconductors and aeronautics, with reliance on foreign suppliers remaining a setback.

Potential Challenges and Considerations

Balancing innovation with political control and the potential impact on fostering an innovative environment. Implications for global supply chains, particularly in sectors like semiconductors, AI, and renewable energy. Potential reactions from international partners and competitors.

Conclusion

China's strategic shift towards technological self-reliance, as outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, reflects its ambition to reduce dependence on foreign technology and bolster its position as a global leader in high-tech industries. This move has significant implications for global economic and political landscapes.