Iceland Declares Potential Collapse of AMOC a National Security Threat

In a historic move, Iceland's National Security Council has officially declared the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a national security threat and existential risk. This marks the first time the council has formally recognized a climate-related phenomenon as a potential existential threat.

The AMOC is a critical system of ocean currents in the Atlantic Ocean that transports warm water from the tropics toward the Arctic, playing a vital role in moderating Europe's climate. However, increased Arctic warming and the melting of Greenland’s ice are introducing large amounts of cold freshwater into the Atlantic, threatening to disrupt this current. Scientists warn that such a collapse could trigger extreme winter conditions in Northern Europe, alter global rainfall patterns, and accelerate Antarctic ice melt.

Iceland's Climate Minister, Johann Pall Johannsson, emphasized the urgency of addressing this issue, stating that it poses a direct threat to the nation's resilience and security. The government is now coordinating disaster preparedness and assessing impacts across sectors such as food and energy security, infrastructure, and international transport.

Other Northern European nations are also taking action. Ireland and Norway are ramping up research on the potential impacts of an AMOC collapse, while the UK is investing heavily in climate tipping point studies. Experts emphasize the urgency in addressing the issue, as the window to act may be closing rapidly due to ongoing global warming.

The potential collapse of the AMOC carries significant social and societal implications. A collapse could lead to severe cold temperatures in Northern Europe, altering global rainfall patterns critical to farming in regions such as Africa, India, and South America. Disruptions in climate patterns could affect agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure, leading to economic instability. Adverse climate conditions may force populations to migrate, leading to potential geopolitical tensions.

Historically, the AMOC has been relatively stable. However, during the last ice age, a massive influx of freshwater into the Atlantic halted the AMOC, plunging much of the Northern Hemisphere into deep cold for approximately 1,000 years.

Iceland's declaration underscores the growing recognition of climate change as a multifaceted threat encompassing environmental, economic, and security dimensions. The potential collapse of the AMOC serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global systems and the urgent need for coordinated international action.