Black Friday 2025: Retailers and Consumers Embrace Record-Breaking $1 Trillion Season

As Black Friday 2025 approaches, retailers and consumers are preparing for a shopping season poised to set new records. The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates that total holiday sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, with an estimated 186.9 million U.S. shoppers participating between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. Average spending per person is projected at $890.49.

Despite this milestone, the growth rate of 3.7% to 4.2% is slower compared to previous years. Economic factors such as inflation and cautious consumer sentiment are influencing shopping behaviors. Many consumers are seeking substantial discounts, with promotions expected to reach up to 28%.

Retailers are responding by launching early deals to attract shoppers. Major chains like Walmart, Amazon, Macy’s, Kohl’s, and Target have rolled out promotions ahead of Black Friday. Popular discounted items include televisions, laptops, beauty products, and Apple devices, enticing consumers to shop early and strategically.

The rise of online shopping continues to reshape consumer behavior. Online purchases are projected to account for a quarter of the U.S.'s $1 trillion holiday spending in 2025. Cyber Monday is expected to surpass Black Friday in sales, reflecting a shift towards digital transactions. In cities like Philadelphia, traditional Black Friday shopping has evolved into a month-long sales season, often referred to as "Black November." This trend is driven by the convenience of online shopping and changing consumer preferences.

Retailers are also adapting to these changes. Best Buy, for instance, has raised its profit and sales expectations ahead of the holiday season, following a strong third-quarter performance. The company reported a 2.7% increase in comparable-store sales—the largest in four years—boosted by demand in computing, gaming, and mobile segments. Net income for the quarter was $140 million, or $1.40 per share when adjusted, outperforming Wall Street expectations. Sales rose to $9.67 billion.

CEO Corie Barry highlighted that consumers remain resilient and are drawn to value rather than just low prices, with continued interest in innovative and necessary tech purchases. She also noted that product ranges at various price points have attracted more lower-income shoppers. Despite ongoing economic pressures such as inflation and tariffs, Best Buy has mitigated impacts through supply chain diversification.

Consumers are increasingly utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) tools to find deals, compare prices, and manage purchases. This marks the first Black Friday where generative AI acts as a true retail channel, not just a research tool. Additionally, the popularity of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options continues to rise, providing shoppers with more flexible payment choices. More retailers are adopting BNPL to attract budget-conscious consumers.

The evolution of Black Friday into a prolonged shopping season reflects broader societal shifts towards convenience and digital integration. While traditional in-person shopping experiences are declining, the emphasis on online deals and extended promotions caters to consumers' desire for flexibility and value. This transformation also highlights the resilience of consumer spending habits despite economic pressures.

As the holiday shopping season unfolds, both retailers and consumers are navigating a landscape marked by economic challenges and technological advancements. The ability to adapt to these changes will be crucial in determining the success of Black Friday 2025 and beyond.