Guinea’s Doumbouya declared election winner, set for seven-year term as opposition cries foul

Guinea’s military ruler Mamady Doumbouya has been declared the provisional winner of the country’s first presidential election since a 2021 coup, securing nearly 87% of the vote in a contest opposition groups and rights advocates say was neither free nor fair.

Provisional results announced Dec. 30 by the General Directorate of Elections gave Doumbouya 4.59 million votes, or 86.72% of valid ballots, in the Dec. 28 poll. The election authority reported turnout of 80.95% among roughly 6.77 million registered voters.

If the results are confirmed by the Supreme Court in the coming days, Doumbouya would receive a seven-year term under a new constitution adopted last year—formalizing his transition from junta chief to civilian president more than four years after he seized power.

The vote is a milestone for Guinea and for a region where soldiers have toppled governments from Bamako to Niamey. It is the first time one of West Africa’s recent coup leaders has organized a national presidential election and emerged as the presumptive winner. Critics, however, say the process unfolded under rules rewritten by the junta and in a political landscape reshaped by bans on protests, dissolved parties and exiled rivals.

A landslide without heavyweights

The election authority said nine candidates took part, but none of the heavyweight opposition figures who dominated Guinean politics over the past decade appeared on the ballot.

Former Education Minister Abdoulaye Yéro Baldé finished a distant second with about 6.6% of the vote. Faya Lansana Millimouno of the Bloc Libéral received just over 2%. The remaining contenders each took less than 2%, according to the provisional tallies.

Baldé and other opposition candidates rejected the results, citing what they described as serious irregularities in voter registration, access to polling stations and the counting process. Millimouno denounced the exercise as “electoral banditry,” claiming that opposition representatives and observers were barred from many polling and tally centers.

A coalition of opposition and civic groups known as the National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC)—which led mass demonstrations against former President Alpha Condé’s third term—called for a boycott and later said “a huge majority of Guineans chose to boycott the electoral charade.” The group was formally dissolved by the junta in 2022 but continues to issue statements from exile and underground networks.

On election day, correspondents in Conakry reported a subdued atmosphere at several polling stations, with fewer voters than the official turnout might suggest. Regional observers from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), however, described the vote as generally peaceful and orderly, noting only minor procedural issues.

The Supreme Court has eight days from the proclamation of provisional results to hear challenges and either validate or annul the outcome. If ratified, Doumbouya will begin a seven-year term that can be renewed once.

From “no-candidate” pledge to constitutional overhaul

Doumbouya, a former French Foreign Legionnaire who rose to command Guinea’s Special Forces, came to power on Sept. 5, 2021, when troops stormed the presidential palace in Conakry and detained Condé. Appearing on state television that day, he dissolved the constitution, government and institutions, justifying the coup by citing corruption, “the trampling of citizens’ rights” and chronic poverty despite the country’s mineral wealth.

Under a transition charter adopted after the takeover, junta members, ministers and senior officials were barred from standing in future elections. Doumbouya repeatedly pledged that neither he nor his fellow officers would run, presenting himself as a neutral arbiter overseeing a return to civilian rule.

That prohibition was lifted in September 2025, when the military-led authorities organized a constitutional referendum. The new charter, approved with about 89% support according to official figures, extended presidential terms from five to seven years—renewable once—and removed the explicit ban on junta figures running for office.

Opposition leaders, many of whom called for a boycott, condemned the referendum as a vehicle to legitimize the coup and clear the way for Doumbouya’s candidacy. They alleged pre-marked ballots, pressure on local officials and constraints on independent media in the run-up to the vote. Authorities denied wrongdoing and said the new constitution reflected the will of the people.

Political space narrowed ahead of the vote

In the years between the coup and the election, Guinea’s political arena was transformed.

In May 2022, the transitional authorities imposed a blanket ban on demonstrations, saying protests would not be authorized until security could be guaranteed. Rights groups say that restriction has remained effectively in place, and that security forces have repeatedly used excessive force to break up unauthorized gatherings. Human rights organizations have documented dozens of protest-related deaths since mid-2022, including several in Conakry in 2024.

The government dissolved the FNDC by decree in August 2022, accusing it of undermining national unity. In 2024 it revoked the legal status of 53 political parties and placed 67 others under “observation” for alleged administrative failures, in a move analysts say has no precedent in Guinea’s post-2010 history. Among those affected or closely monitored were Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People and the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea, led by longtime opposition figure Cellou Dalein Diallo. Both leaders remain outside the country.

Ahead of the 2025 referendum, authorities temporarily suspended several major opposition parties from political activity. In the presidential race that followed, none of the exiled heavyweights or their main parties were able to compete directly.

The U.N. high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk, said the presidential campaign was “severely restricted,” citing intimidation of opposition actors, what he described as apparently politically motivated enforced disappearances, and limits on media freedom.

Guinean officials have defended the measures as necessary to maintain order and ensure the credibility of the transition. They argue that some dissolved organizations failed to comply with legal requirements or incited violence.

Mining boom heightens stakes

Doumbouya’s consolidation of power comes as Guinea’s vast mineral resources move to the center of its economic and diplomatic relationships.

Guinea holds an estimated quarter of the world’s bauxite reserves and has become a crucial supplier to global aluminum producers, particularly in China. Exports have climbed to record levels in recent years, with Guinean bauxite accounting for roughly half of global shipments by some estimates.

Even more transformative could be Simandou, a massive high-grade iron ore deposit in the country’s southeast. After years of delays, an international consortium led by Rio Tinto and a separate group of mainly Chinese and Singaporean firms have begun developing a 600-kilometer rail line and new Atlantic port under a joint venture with the Guinean state. A formal ceremony in November marked the start of operations, with partners aiming to export up to 120 million tons of iron ore annually later this decade.

Doumbouya has framed the projects as pillars of a new era of “economic sovereignty,” insisting that Guinea must not remain a simple exporter of raw materials. His government has pressed mining firms to build local processing plants and has moved to revoke licenses it says were underused or failed to meet contractual obligations.

Those steps have unsettled some investors. In 2025 the authorities cancelled the permit of Axis International, a United Arab Emirates-based bauxite miner, and transferred control of some assets from another major operator, Guinea Alumina Corporation, to a state-owned company. Axis has launched an international arbitration claim seeking nearly $29 billion in damages, alleging illegal expropriation and frozen accounts. The government says it acted within the law to defend national interests.

With a seven-year mandate, Doumbouya will oversee the critical ramp-up of these projects and negotiations over how the resulting revenues are shared.

Cautious acceptance abroad, uncertain future at home

Regional and international responses to the election have been measured.

An ECOWAS observer mission praised the “generally peaceful and orderly” conduct of the vote and what it called relatively satisfactory participation, while urging authorities to address technical shortcomings and ensure transparency in the final tabulation. The African Union also deployed observers and issued a preliminary statement focused largely on procedural aspects.

The European Union has maintained sanctions related to Guinea’s post-coup situation, recently extending restrictive measures until at least late 2026. The United Nations and rights organizations have urged the authorities to lift bans on demonstrations, reverse the dissolution of key civic groups and investigate past protest killings.

Major mining partners, including Chinese state-owned enterprises and Rio Tinto, have largely avoided public comment on the political transition, focusing instead on agreements and construction milestones.

Inside Guinea, many citizens are watching to see whether the promised “refounding” of the state will translate into better roads, schools and jobs. Despite its mineral wealth, the country remains among the poorest in the world, and more than half the population lives in poverty or faces food insecurity, according to aid agencies.

For the government, the election is the culmination of a transition back to constitutional order. For critics, it underscores how power can be entrenched through rewritten rules and managed ballots as easily as through force. As the Supreme Court prepares to rule on the final results, Guineans are left weighing the prospects of stability and economic growth against a political space that, for now, remains tightly controlled.