Flights Halted as Clashes Rekindle Fears of War in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region

The departures board at Mekele’s airport has shown little but cancellations since late January. Ethiopian Airlines has halted all flights to and from Tigray, cars have begun to crowd the roads out of the region’s main towns, and residents report queues snaking outside bank branches as people rush to withdraw cash.

Over western Tigray’s contested Tselemti district, drones have been heard overhead and gunfire reported on the ground, reviving fears that Ethiopia could be sliding back toward a wider war less than four years after a peace deal was meant to end it.

Clashes in a contested district

Clashes between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan fighters erupted in and around Tselemti in late January, according to diplomats and security officials. The United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said in updated travel advice that “since 26 January, clashes have occurred in Tigray between TPLF‑aligned forces and the Ethiopian military, reportedly including drone strikes which have killed at least one civilian.”

Regional and international observers say the fighting marks the most serious challenge so far to the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which formally ended the devastating conflict between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and Tigray’s then-rebellion, led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

On Feb. 1, the interim authorities in Tigray said their forces had withdrawn from Tselemti after several days of combat. Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede, the chief administrator of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration and commander of the Tigray Defense Forces, described the move as a “confidence‑building measure” intended to de-escalate and preserve the Pretoria deal.

“We have ordered our forces to pull back from Tselemti to demonstrate our commitment to a peaceful resolution and to the Pretoria Agreement,” Tadesse said in a statement carried by Tigrayan media. “We call on the federal government and all parties to choose dialogue over further bloodshed.”

The federal government in Addis Ababa has not given a detailed account of the latest clashes. A security official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief reporters, said the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) had been involved in “operations to ensure security” in western and southern Tigray, where “drones are hovering in the sky and there are military movements.”

What is clear is that fighting has again broken out in one of the most disputed pieces of territory in Ethiopia.

Why western Tigray remains volatile

Tselemti — also spelled Tsemlet or Tselemt — lies in western Tigray, a fertile area that Amhara political leaders say was historically part of their region. Tigrayan officials insist it belongs to Tigray under Ethiopia’s constitution and accuse Amhara regional forces and militias of occupying the area since the 2020–2022 war.

Western Tigray was among the hardest-hit areas during that conflict, which pitted the ENDF, Amhara regional units and allied militias, and Eritrean troops against Tigrayan forces. Researchers and human rights groups have documented widespread abuses there, including what some have described as ethnic cleansing and forced displacement of Tigrayan civilians. The African Union has said at least 600,000 people died in the broader war, from direct violence and its humanitarian fallout.

The Pretoria Agreement — formally titled the Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities — was signed on Nov. 2, 2022, in South Africa’s administrative capital. It committed both sides to stop fighting, restore constitutional order in Tigray and protect civilians. It also laid out a sequence in which Tigrayan fighters would disarm while “foreign and non‑ENDF forces” — widely understood to mean Eritrean units and Amhara regional forces — would withdraw from Tigray, and basic services and aid would be restored.

Implementation of those provisions has lagged, particularly around western Tigray. Amhara forces have retained effective control of much of the area, including Tselemti, despite repeated calls from Tigrayan leaders and international mediators for changes on the ground to match the spirit of the agreement.

Analysts say incomplete implementation has created a volatile status quo in which both sides have an incentive to strengthen their positions ahead of any formal demarcation of borders or constitutional arbitration over disputed districts.

Drones return to Tigray’s skies

The latest flare-up has also brought drones back into Tigray’s airspace. A senior Tigrayan official and a humanitarian worker told reporters that on Jan. 31 at least one drone strike hit two trucks near the towns of Enticho and Gendebta, killing one person and injuring another. They attributed the attack to the federal military, but provided no direct evidence, and independent verification has not been possible.

Tigrayan media outlets reported that the trucks were carrying food and cooking supplies. Pro-government activists on social media claimed the vehicles were transporting weapons. Ethiopian authorities have not publicly commented on the specific strike.

Whatever their target, the reported air attacks and renewed fighting have rattled Tigray’s war-weary civilian population and alarmed foreign governments.

International alarm and travel warnings

The UK has advised against all travel to Tigray and parts of neighboring Amhara, citing “renewed violence between TPLF‑aligned forces and the Ethiopian military.” Australia’s travel advisory urges people not to travel to Tigray, warning that the security situation could deteriorate rapidly and that consular help would be extremely limited.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement dated Feb. 1 that he was “deeply concerned about the potential impact on civilians and the risk of a return to a wider conflict.” He called on all parties “to exercise restraint and resolve differences through peaceful dialogue and measures aimed at rebuilding trust.”

The chairperson of the African Union Commission issued a similar appeal, expressing “deep concern over rising tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region” and urging all sides to show “maximum restraint” and act in “full adherence to the obligations and spirit of the Permanent COHA,” using the acronym for the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.

Western donors, including the United Kingdom, have invested heavily in Pretoria’s success, offering technical support and funding for its implementation. British officials have publicly tied new cooperation with Ethiopia to progress on the peace process even as they warn of worsening insecurity on the ground.

A wider web of conflicts

The renewed clashes come as Abiy’s government faces armed unrest in several regions. In Amhara, where militias known as Fano fought alongside federal forces in Tigray, many fighters have since turned their guns against the central government, accusing it of weakening regional autonomy. In Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region, federal troops have battled an insurgent group for years.

Those overlapping conflicts leave the prime minister with limited room to maneuver. Pushing Amhara militias out of western Tigray to satisfy Pretoria’s terms could further inflame the crisis in Amhara. Leaving them in place risks deepening Tigrayan grievances and undermining the peace deal.

Inside Tigray, politics are also fractured. The TPLF remains a dominant force but is no longer synonymous with the region’s administration. The interim government now led by Tadesse was formed as part of the Pretoria arrangements, and newer actors, such as a grouping calling itself the Tigray Peace Forces, have emerged in opposition to the old leadership. TPLF officials have accused these groups of acting as proxies for Addis Ababa, a charge they deny. Their precise role, if any, in the latest round of fighting is unclear.

A fragile peace

For ordinary Tigrayans, the political maneuvering and competing territorial claims matter less than whether a fragile calm can hold.

Humanitarian organizations say up to 80% of the region’s population still depends on some form of aid, and health and transport systems remain fragile after years of blockade and bombardment. Any sustained escalation, they warn, could quickly reverse the limited gains made since 2022.

For now, the guns are not roaring across all of northern Ethiopia as they did at the height of the war. But in Tselemti, the flashes of renewed fighting, the hiss of drones and the hurried withdrawal of one side from a disputed district have exposed how thin the country’s postwar peace remains — and how quickly it could be torn open again unless the unresolved promises of Pretoria are addressed.