March 2026 Was the Warmest March on Record for the Contiguous U.S., Federal Analysis Shows

Record March warmth and mounting risks

In March, the average temperature across the contiguous United States reached 50.85°F (10.47°C), a new national monthly high and about 9.35°F (5.19°C) above the 20th‑century March average, according to a National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) analysis. The departure is the largest for any March in records that begin in 1895.

Federal scientists reported that March 2026 is now the warmest March on record for the lower 48 states. The same assessment found that the 12‑month period from April 2025 through March 2026 was the warmest such span ever recorded for the contiguous United States.

“What we experienced in March across the United States was unprecedented,” Shel Winkley of Climate Central said in an interview with The Associated Press, describing the breadth of the heat.

States, stations and records

Ten states — Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Wyoming — logged their warmest March on record, NCEI found. Hundreds to thousands of local weather stations and many counties set new daily or monthly heat records during the month.

Scientists noted that March 2026 eclipsed the extreme March warmth of 2012, making it not only the hottest March but one of the most anomalously warm months in the national record. Six of the 10 most unusually hot months in the U.S. record have occurred in the past decade, underscoring the growing frequency of extreme monthly averages.

Drought, wildfire and water concerns

The warmth arrived alongside exceptional dryness. January through March 2026 tied or ranked as the driest first quarter on record for the contiguous United States, and by March 31 the U.S. Drought Monitor showed drought conditions covering a majority of the lower 48.

Federal wildfire and drought trackers reported widely similar measures of stress: the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) said in its April 1 outlook that more than 56% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought at the end of March, while NCEI cited approximately 59.9%.

The combination of early heat and dry conditions is already evident in burned acreage and fire counts. As of March 31, about 1,615,683 acres had burned nationwide in 2026 — roughly 231% of the previous 10‑year average for that date — and the NIFC tallied 16,746 wildfires, about 168% of the 10‑year average.

NIFC’s National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July highlights above‑normal potential for significant fires in parts of the Southwest (including southeast Arizona and New Mexico), the central and southern High Plains, south Texas, and much of the Deep South and Southeast. The agency projects elevated risk persisting or expanding into May and June in parts of the West and South, closely tracking areas of ongoing drought and above‑average temperatures.

Warmer early springs also strain water supplies. Reduced mountain snowpack, earlier snowmelt and increased evaporation can lower reservoir levels and complicate irrigation and water‑allocation planning. NCEI and other agencies have noted low snowpack in key basins this year, raising concerns among water managers about summer streamflows and reservoir storage.

Causes and context

Researchers say long‑term human‑driven warming is the critical backdrop for the March record. Independent attribution groups and climate scientists cited in recent coverage have concluded that the magnitude and geographic extent of the warmth would be extremely unlikely without anthropogenic climate change, which increases the probability of such extreme monthly averages.

Short‑term weather drivers also played a role. A Pacific Ocean pattern with warm tendencies similar to El Niño and repeated high‑pressure “heat domes” that stalled over parts of the country helped lock in heat for days at a time and limited opportunities for cooler air to spread south.

“All those broken records tells us that climate change is kicking our butts,” meteorologist Jeff Masters said in comments reported by The Washington Post, linking the March statistics to the broader global trend.

Impacts and preparation

The timing of the heat — late winter into early spring — matters for public health and infrastructure. Many communities have not yet activated summer heat‑illness outreach, opened cooling centers or fully prepared emergency and health systems for hot‑weather surges. Utilities in some regions could face unexpected strain if air‑conditioning demand spikes weeks before a typical peak season.

Federal climate summaries such as NCEI’s monthly assessments and the U.S. Drought Monitor are used by state and local governments when declaring drought emergencies, adjusting water‑allocation plans and preparing for wildfire season. Governors and water agencies frequently reference these reports when requesting federal assistance or triggering state drought response plans.

Outlook

Taken together — the March temperature record, the record‑dry first quarter and early wildfire activity — indicate that the United States is entering the warm season with multiple risk factors already in place. While conditions in the coming months will depend on evolving weather patterns, current fire outlooks and drought maps suggest communities in the Southwest, southern Plains and Southeast should prepare for the possibility of a longer, more intense season of heat, water stress and wildfire.

Public officials and residents in higher‑risk areas are advised to review local preparedness guidance, monitor updates from the National Weather Service and wildfire agencies, and conserve water where authorities recommend restrictions.