CBO: U.S. Federal Net Saving Projected at -$1.8 Trillion in 2026, Worsening to -$3.0 Trillion by 2036

The Congressional Budget Office said Monday that, in the national accounts used for broad macroeconomic analysis, the federal government is projected to post $1.8 trillion in negative net saving in 2026, with that shortfall rising to $3.0 trillion by 2036.

The figures come from a technical report published Oct. 26, not from a new budget forecast. Instead, CBO translated its February 2026 baseline budget projections into the national income and product accounts, or NIPAs, the framework used for statistics such as gross domestic product and national saving. In the underlying February baseline, CBO projected a budget deficit of $1.9 trillion in 2026 and $3.1 trillion in 2036.

That distinction matters because NIPA net federal saving is closely related to, but not the same as, the budget deficit. The national accounts measure current federal receipts against current federal expenditures, and they treat some items differently from the federal budget, including federal investment, retirement accruals and some transfers. CBO uses those NIPA projections in its macroeconomic forecast.

Under the report, negative net federal saving stays at roughly $1.8 trillion in 2027, reaches $1.9 trillion in 2028 and then climbs over the following years to $3.0 trillion in 2036. Over the full 2026-2036 period, CBO projected $25.6 trillion in total negative net federal saving, compared with a cumulative budget deficit of $26.3 trillion.

CBO, a nonpartisan agency that provides budget and economic analysis to Congress, said the report is based on its Feb. 11, 2026, publication “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.” That baseline projected about $5.6 trillion in federal revenues and $7.4 trillion in outlays in 2026.

The release is best understood as a companion to that earlier budget outlook rather than a revision to it. By recasting the budget baseline into the national accounts, the report gives economists and budget watchers a way to compare the federal government’s fiscal position with other top-line measures in the broader economy.

Readers should also note the cutoff dates behind the projections. The February baseline reflected economic developments as of Dec. 3, 2025, trade policy as of Nov. 20, 2025, and laws enacted through Jan. 14, 2026. Later policy changes are not included in these figures.