BNP Paribas CEO Jean-Laurent Bonnafé has expressed optimism about the future of European corporate investment banking, anticipating significant opportunities over the next two to five years. This outlook comes despite current global economic uncertainties that have led many corporations to scale back investments and hiring.

In a conference call with analysts on April 24, 2025, Bonnafé highlighted that while economic challenges are causing corporations to reduce investments—particularly in the United States, emerging markets, the eurozone, and China—Europe is poised for a surge in corporate activities such as restructuring, refinancing, deleveraging, and mergers and acquisitions. He emphasized BNP Paribas's cautious approach, adhering to its risk policies while remaining vigilant for emerging prospects.

"Corporates are going to invest slightly less than anticipated... this will have a kind of global impact," Bonnafé noted during the call.

BNP Paribas reported a 3.8% year-on-year increase in group revenues for the first quarter of 2025, reaching nearly €13 billion. This growth was primarily driven by the Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) division, which saw a 12.5% rise in revenues. Notably, equity trading revenues surged by 42%, and fixed income-related revenues increased by 4.4%. Despite these gains, net income declined by 4.9% to €2.95 billion, partly due to the re-inclusion of its Ukrainian operations. The bank maintained its 2024-2026 profit targets, including over 7% annual growth in net income.

Bonnafé's outlook suggests that, while current economic uncertainties may dampen immediate corporate investment and hiring, the anticipated wave of corporate restructuring and M&A activity in Europe could stimulate economic growth and job creation in the medium term. BNP Paribas's cautious yet optimistic stance reflects a strategic balance between risk management and seizing emerging opportunities, potentially influencing other financial institutions' approaches to investment banking in the region.

Despite the challenging economic environment, BNP Paribas remains committed to its strategic goals. The bank has already achieved nearly a third of its €600 million cost-saving target for 2025, contributing to a broader €3.3 billion savings plan through 2026. Further strategic changes, especially in its French retail operations, are expected to be detailed in June.

In May 2024, Bonnafé expressed skepticism about the potential for a revival of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in European banking. He highlighted the economic challenges of cross-border and domestic deals, citing differing regulations, labor laws, and the absence of a eurozone-wide deposit insurance scheme as significant hurdles. Bonnafé noted that the economics of such deals rarely make sense, especially for non-domestic players.

BNP Paribas, under the leadership of Jean-Laurent Bonnafé, is positioning itself to capitalize on the anticipated growth in European corporate investment banking. By maintaining a cautious approach and adhering to its risk policies, the bank aims to navigate the evolving economic landscape and leverage emerging opportunities in the coming years.