Portugal is set to hold a snap legislative election on May 18, 2025, following the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's center-right minority government. This marks the nation's third general election in as many years, highlighting a period of significant political instability.

The immediate cause of the government's downfall was a conflict-of-interest scandal involving Spinumviva, a data protection consultancy founded by Montenegro in 2021. Although he transferred ownership to his wife and children upon becoming the Social Democratic Party (PSD) leader in 2022, it was revealed that Spinumviva received monthly payments from Solverde, a casino company with government concessions. This raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest, especially as the government was set to decide on the renewal of Solverde's casino licenses.

In response to mounting pressure, Montenegro called a parliamentary confidence vote on March 11, 2025, aiming to "dispel uncertainty" about his administration's future. The motion was defeated, with both the opposition Socialist Party (PS) and the far-right Chega party voting against the government. Following this defeat, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved parliament and scheduled the early election for May 18.

Recent polls indicate a fragmented political landscape. The Democratic Alliance (AD) leads with 32% support, followed by the PS at 27%, and Chega at 19%. Given that a parliamentary majority requires at least 42% support, the likelihood of a stable government remains uncertain. Montenegro has explicitly ruled out forming alliances with Chega, further complicating potential coalition formations.

Amid the election campaign, the caretaker government announced plans to expel approximately 18,000 undocumented immigrants, with an initial group of around 4,500 individuals receiving notices to leave voluntarily within 20 days. This move has been criticized by opposition parties as an electoral maneuver aimed at appealing to right-wing voters and countering Chega's influence. The timing of the announcement, just weeks before the election, has intensified debates on immigration and government transparency.

Despite political turbulence, Portugal's economy has demonstrated resilience. The country experienced a GDP growth of 1.9% in 2024, surpassing the EU average of 0.8%. The unemployment rate stands at 6.4%, aligning with the EU average. Portugal is also in the process of investing over €22 billion in EU development funds, making political stability crucial for effective allocation and utilization of these resources.

This upcoming election is Portugal's third in three years, highlighting a period of significant political instability. The previous election in March 2024 was triggered by the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister António Costa amid an influence-peddling investigation. The frequent elections and shifting political alliances have led to voter fatigue and increased support for anti-establishment parties like Chega, which has capitalized on public frustration with traditional political entities.

As Portugal approaches the May 18 election, the nation stands at a crossroads. The outcome will not only determine the composition of the next government but also influence the country's ability to address pressing economic and social challenges. The political landscape remains fluid, and the election results will be pivotal in shaping Portugal's future trajectory.