Thailand’s Feb. 8 Vote Puts Post-Coup Order on Trial With Election and Constitution Referendum

BANGKOK — When Thai voters head to the polls on Feb. 8, they will be handed more than just the usual two ballots for parliament. Alongside their choices for a local representative and a political party, they will see a single, stark question on a separate sheet of paper:

“Do you approve that there should be a new constitution?”

The combined general election and national referendum, scheduled for the same day, will test whether Thailand is ready to dismantle key parts of the political order built after the 2014 military coup — or whether that system has become the country’s new normal.

The vote will be the first since the coup-era 2017 constitution took effect in which an appointed Senate will not help pick the prime minister. At the same time, it asks the public whether to begin drafting a replacement for that same charter, which was written under junta rule and has underpinned a decade of what critics call “managed democracy.”

The outcome will shape not only who governs Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, but also how much power unelected institutions — the military, courts and watchdog agencies — will continue to wield over elected politicians.

A system built by generals

Thailand’s current constitution emerged from a 2016 referendum held under the National Council for Peace and Order, the junta that seized power in a May 2014 coup led by then-army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha.

The charter, promulgated in 2017, created a fully appointed 250-member Senate chosen by the military and allied bodies. For the first five years of the new political system, that Senate was empowered to join the 500-member elected House of Representatives in voting for a prime minister.

Those provisions allowed the Senate to repeatedly back conservative leaders, including Prayuth, and to block the opposition Move Forward Party’s bid to form a government after it won the most seats in the May 2023 election. Senators refused to support Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat, citing his party’s pledge to amend the country’s strict royal insult law.

Other articles of the 2017 charter entrenched a 20-year “national strategy” that binds elected governments to long-term policy plans and strengthened the role of the Constitutional Court and independent agencies, enabling judges to remove prime ministers and dissolve parties.

The Senate’s formal power to vote for the prime minister expired in May 2024, when a new 200-member upper house, chosen under regular procedures, replaced the junta-appointed body. That means the prime minister chosen after the February election will, for the first time in more than a decade, be selected only by elected lawmakers in the House.

A decade of judicial interventions

The approaching vote comes after a succession of high-profile court decisions that have repeatedly upended electoral outcomes and reshaped governments.

In August 2024, the Constitutional Court dissolved the Move Forward Party and banned its executive members from politics for 10 years over its campaign to amend Article 112 of the Criminal Code, the lèse-majesté provision that criminalizes insults to the king and other royal family members. The court ruled that Move Forward’s platform aimed to “overthrow the democratic regime of government with the king as head of state.”

Rights groups condemned the ruling. Amnesty International called the dissolution “an untenable decision” and said it used the law “to intimidate, silence and target people who are critical of the authorities.”

Former Move Forward lawmakers quickly regrouped under a small existing party, rebranding it as the People’s Party (PPLE) and installing Natthaphong “Teng” Ruengpanyawut as leader. Many of the dissolved party’s key figures, including economist Sirikanya Tansakun, took senior roles in the new formation.

Courts have also removed two prime ministers from the Pheu Thai Party, the main vehicle for supporters of exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Srettha Thavisin was ousted in 2024, and in August 2025, the Constitutional Court disqualified Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, over what it described as ethical violations linked to her handling of a border dispute with Cambodia.

In September 2025, parliament elected Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister with 311 votes, after Pheu Thai lost its grip on the coalition. Lawmakers from the new People’s Party backed Anutin’s bid in exchange for a pledge to call early elections and to support moves toward constitutional change, according to people involved in the negotiations at the time.

The political field

The Feb. 8 election will fill all 500 seats in the House of Representatives — 400 through single-member districts and 100 through a nationwide party-list ballot. A party or coalition needs at least 251 seats to form a majority.

The People’s Party, widely seen as the third incarnation of the progressive “orange” movement that began with Future Forward in 2019, is campaigning on a promise to rewrite the rules of Thai politics.

It has called for an elected constituent assembly to draft a new constitution, the end of mandatory military conscription, decentralization of power from Bangkok, the breakup of business monopolies and stronger labor and social protections. After the court ruling against Move Forward, however, the party has dropped explicit calls to amend the lèse-majesté law from its official platform.

Opinion surveys in recent months have often placed the People’s Party ahead in the party-list vote and in preferred choice for prime minister, though a large number of respondents remain undecided and polling in Thailand has at times underestimated conservative parties.

Pheu Thai, whose predecessors have won every election since 2001 on populist economic promises, enters the race weakened. Its decision to form a coalition in 2023 with conservative and pro-military parties such as Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation angered parts of its traditional base in the north and northeast. The subsequent removal of its prime ministers by the courts has reinforced a sense among supporters that the Shinawatra camp remains a target of the establishment.

Party leader Julapun Amornvivat is fronting a slate of prime ministerial candidates that also includes Yodchanan Wongsawat, a nephew of Thaksin, and veteran politician Suriya Juangroongruangkit. Pheu Thai is again promising growth-boosting stimulus, debt relief and infrastructure spending, while taking a more cautious line on contentious institutional issues.

Bhumjaithai, a conservative-populist party with strong networks in provincial areas, is pitching Prime Minister Anutin as a steady hand in uncertain times. Anutin, a former construction executive and health minister known for overseeing cannabis decriminalization in 2022, has emphasized border security and nationalism after armed clashes with Cambodia in 2025 displaced civilians and killed soldiers on both sides.

On the campaign trail, he has also drawn sharp lines on royal reform. “Amending Article 112 will never happen and will never succeed because you have us,” he told supporters at one rally, presenting his party as a guardian of the monarchy.

Smaller right-leaning parties including Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation, both closely associated with former junta leader Prayuth, as well as the diminished but still influential Democrat Party, could all play a role in coalition bargaining if no single bloc emerges with a clear majority.

The referendum question

While parties compete for seats, they are also staking out positions on the referendum.

The People’s Party and several civil society organizations are urging a “yes” vote, arguing that the 2017 charter entrenched military and elite influence and enabled the dissolution of popular parties. They want a new basic law that removes appointed senators, reins in the power of the courts and independent agencies, and strengthens civil liberties.

Pheu Thai has long advocated amending or replacing the post-coup constitution but has not campaigned as aggressively as its progressive rival on the issue, reflecting its fraught history with the judiciary and the monarchy.

Conservative and military-aligned parties are more skeptical. Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation have warned that opening up the charter could lead to instability, embolden street protests or be used to undermine the royal institution. They say any changes should be cautious and carefully controlled.

The government has justified holding the referendum on the same day as the election as a cost-saving measure. The cabinet approved nearly 9 billion baht, about $250 million, for managing both exercises. Under Thailand’s referendum law, voting on the question must take place nationwide on a single day, so there will be no separate advance voting for the charter poll.

What happens next

If a majority of voters approve beginning the drafting of a new constitution, the next government will need to decide how a drafting body is composed and what limits, if any, are placed on its work. Options discussed in political circles include a fully elected assembly, a mixed group of elected and appointed drafters, or a parliamentary committee.

If the referendum fails, the 2017 charter will remain in force with only piecemeal amendments possible, and the debate over the military’s legacy in politics is likely to continue.

Official election and referendum results are expected by early April. The new House must convene and select a speaker, and then elect a prime minister, within 15 days of ratification of the results.

For many Thais, particularly younger voters who have backed the orange parties in successive elections only to see them sidelined, the February vote is about more than which party tops the tally.

It will show whether an electorate that has repeatedly demanded change at the ballot box can finally translate that demand into a government that reflects it — and into a constitutional framework that no longer allows the generals and judges to overrule the polls.