NOAA Predicts Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2025

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, with 6 to 10 developing into hurricanes, and 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). This projection surpasses the 1991–2020 average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes per season. NOAA attributes the anticipated increase in storm activity primarily to warmer sea surface temperatures. Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, emphasized that these elevated temperatures create conditions conducive to hurricane formation and intensification.

Independent forecasts align with NOAA's outlook; for instance, Colorado State University predicts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The 2024 hurricane season was notably severe, producing 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, resulting in 427 fatalities and $130 billion in damages.

Given the forecasted above-normal activity for 2025, NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparedness for residents in hurricane-prone regions. Authorities are urging residents to begin preparations with emergency supplies, home protection measures, and evacuation plans ahead of the official start of the season on June 1.

The forecast coincides with the Trump administration's proposed plans to downsize or eliminate FEMA, the federal agency responsible for disaster response. NOAA officials, including National Weather Service Director Ken Graham and acting administrator Laura Grimm, expressed confidence in their forecasting abilities despite potential staffing cuts. However, concerns are raised about FEMA’s preparedness, as its acting head, David Richardson, reportedly lacks disaster management experience and has admitted the agency does not have a complete hurricane response plan. U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem reaffirmed intentions to delegate FEMA’s responsibilities to state governments. This shift could significantly impact high-risk states like Louisiana, Texas, and Florida, especially in terms of financial recovery following storms.

Experts link increased hurricane intensity and rapid development to climate change, especially as warmer oceans and atmospheres feed stronger storms. While the El Niño/La Niña cycle is currently neutral and African storm systems remain uncertain, most forecasts align on a busy season. Experts warn that even a less active season can produce devastating storms, citing Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as an example.

The insurance industry is closely monitoring these forecasts, as increased hurricane activity can lead to higher claims and financial losses. Major insurance companies such as Allstate Corp, Progressive Corp., and Travelers Companies Inc. may experience stock price volatility in response to these predictions.

As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the nation faces a dual challenge: preparing for an above-normal number of storms while navigating proposed reductions in federal disaster response capabilities. This situation underscores the importance of proactive measures, strategic planning, and robust support systems to safeguard communities in hurricane-prone regions.