Israeli Coalition Faces Collapse After Ultra-Orthodox Parties Exit Over Draft Exemption Dispute
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition suffered a significant blow on July 16, 2025, as the ultra-Orthodox Shas party announced its departure. This move, driven by disputes over proposed legislation granting broad military draft exemptions to ultra-Orthodox men, leaves Netanyahu's coalition with only 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, effectively stripping it of a parliamentary majority.
The departure of Shas follows the exit of the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party just two days prior, both citing similar concerns over the draft exemption legislation. These developments underscore the deep-seated tensions surrounding military conscription for the ultra-Orthodox community, especially amid the ongoing 21-month war in Gaza.
The issue of military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men has been a contentious topic in Israel for decades. In 1948, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion granted exemptions to 400 yeshiva students to preserve religious scholarship after the Holocaust. Over the years, as the ultra-Orthodox population grew, so did the number of exemptions, reaching tens of thousands by 2024. This arrangement has been a longstanding source of tension between secular and religious communities in Israel.
In June 2024, Israel's Supreme Court ruled that the longstanding exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men were unconstitutional, mandating their inclusion in the military draft. The court stated that in the absence of a law distinguishing between Jewish seminary students and other draftees, Israel's compulsory military service system applies to ultra-Orthodox men like any other citizen. This decision intensified public debate, especially during the prolonged Gaza conflict, which has placed significant demands on Israel's military resources.
In response to the court's ruling, the Israeli government proposed new legislation to formalize the draft exemptions. However, ultra-Orthodox parties, including Shas and UTJ, found the proposed measures insufficient, leading to their withdrawal from the coalition. UTJ's departure on July 14, 2025, reduced Netanyahu's coalition to a slim majority, which was further diminished by Shas's exit two days later.
With the coalition now holding only 50 seats in the Knesset, Netanyahu's ability to govern effectively is severely compromised. The loss of a parliamentary majority hampers the passage of legislation and increases the likelihood of early elections, especially if the government cannot secure support from other factions. Opposition leaders, such as Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid, argue that Netanyahu now leads a minority government without a mandate for major decisions and are calling for early elections.
Despite leaving the government, Shas has indicated a willingness to support certain legislation, which could provide Netanyahu with a means to pass critical bills. This conditional support may offer a temporary reprieve, but it does not resolve the underlying instability of the coalition.
The political turmoil coincides with ongoing negotiations for a U.S.-backed ceasefire with Hamas. Far-right elements within Netanyahu's remaining coalition oppose any ceasefire agreement unless Hamas is dismantled. This internal discord complicates Israel's diplomatic efforts and may influence the outcome of the negotiations.
Compounding the political instability, Netanyahu is currently on trial for corruption charges, including bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. These legal challenges further erode his political standing and limit his capacity to navigate the coalition's fractures.
The debate over military draft exemptions has significant social and economic ramifications. The ultra-Orthodox community, comprising about 13% of Israel's population, has a high birth rate and a low participation rate in the workforce, partly due to prolonged religious studies. The exemptions have been criticized for contributing to economic disparities and placing a disproportionate burden on secular Israelis who serve in the military and contribute more significantly to the economy.
While ultra-Orthodox parties have previously threatened to leave governing coalitions over similar issues, the current departures are unprecedented in their immediate impact on the government's stability. The combination of legal mandates, ongoing military conflict, and internal political strife creates a unique and volatile situation.
The departures of Shas and UTJ may be driven by a combination of ideological commitments to religious study and strategic political calculations. By exiting the coalition, these parties signal their non-negotiable stance on draft exemptions, potentially strengthening their positions in future negotiations or elections.
As Israel grapples with these internal challenges, the path forward for Netanyahu's government remains uncertain. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the coalition can regain stability or if the nation is headed toward early elections amid ongoing security concerns and political upheaval.