Japan's Ruling Coalition Faces Major Challenge in Upcoming Election

Japan's ruling coalition, composed of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, faces a significant challenge in the upcoming House of Councillors election on July 20, 2025. Recent projections suggest the coalition may lose its majority in the 248-seat chamber, a development that could reshape the nation's political landscape.

According to a survey conducted by The Asahi Shimbun on July 13-14, the LDP is expected to secure approximately 34 seats, while Komeito may obtain around nine. Combined with their existing 75 seats not up for re-election, the coalition would hold 118 seats—falling short of the 125 needed to maintain a majority. This potential shift is attributed to public dissatisfaction with rising inflation, cost-of-living issues, and the government's handling of economic policies.

A significant factor in this political shift is the emergence of the right-wing populist party Sanseito. Founded in 2020, Sanseito has rapidly gained traction, particularly among younger voters, by promoting a "Japanese First" agenda that includes anti-immigration policies and nationalist rhetoric. The party's leader, Sohei Kamiya, has effectively utilized online platforms to expand its reach, amassing over 400,000 YouTube followers. Sanseito's rise has pressured mainstream parties to adopt tougher stances on foreign residents and scrutinize foreign land purchases.

Economic challenges have further fueled support for populist, anti-globalist parties like Sanseito. The prolonged weakness of the yen, which has reached a level of ¥149 against the dollar, has led to inflation, eroding purchasing power, and increasing the cost of living. The strain on households is evident, with Japan's Engel coefficient, which measures food as a proportion of household spending, at a 43-year high. Inflation-adjusted wages have also fallen for a fifth straight month as of May 2025.

Sanseito's rise has triggered a wave of nervousness across Japan. Eight major human rights NGOs have condemned the party's "Japanese First" slogan as hate speech, warning that exclusivist politics are rapidly spreading through society. Public pushback is growing, with activists organizing protests against the party's rhetoric. Despite holding a limited number of seats in the national and local assemblies, Sanseito's influence is outsized, shaping the political conversation and prompting mainstream parties to adjust their policies.

The election's outcome could significantly impact Japan's political stability and economic policies, especially amid ongoing trade negotiations with the United States. A loss of majority by the ruling coalition may lead to policy shifts and a reevaluation of Japan's economic strategies. The rise of populist parties like Sanseito indicates a growing public demand for change, which could influence future legislative priorities and international relations.

As Japan approaches the July 20 election, the nation stands at a crossroads, with economic challenges and emerging political forces poised to reshape its future trajectory.