Japan's Political Landscape Shifts as Ruling Coalition Loses Upper House Majority

In a historic political shift, Japan's ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has lost its majority in the House of Councillors following the July 20, 2025, elections. This marks the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) founding in 1955 that it has lost control of both parliamentary houses. The election also saw significant gains for the far-right Sanseito party, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction with the government's handling of economic challenges.

The LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, secured only 47 of the 125 contested seats, resulting in a total of 122 seats—three short of the 125 required for a majority in the 248-seat chamber. This outcome follows the coalition's earlier loss in the lower house in October 2024, underscoring a significant shift in Japan's political landscape.

A notable development in this election was the emergence of the far-right Sanseito party, which capitalized on public dissatisfaction over rising living costs and economic stagnation. The party, known for its nationalistic platform and "Japanese First" slogan, gained significant support, securing 14 seats on top of its existing one seat. This surge reflects a broader trend of populist movements gaining traction by addressing economic concerns and advocating for stricter immigration policies.

Sanseito's leader, Sohei Kamiya, inspired by Donald Trump's political style, emphasizes national sovereignty and has distanced himself from more extreme past views to broaden voter appeal. Although immigration was not a top voter concern, Kamiya's criticism of globalization and appeal to disaffected younger male voters gained traction, especially via the party's popular YouTube presence with 400,000 followers—more than any other Japanese party on the platform.

The yen's decline to ¥149 per dollar has exacerbated economic hardships, including food inflation and stagnant wages, contributing to voter discontent. Japan's Engel coefficient is at a 43-year high, indicating increased spending on necessities and highlighting economic strain. This economic hardship is turning into political momentum, enabling Sanseito to potentially win at least 10 seats in the upcoming election.

Despite the setback, Prime Minister Ishiba has expressed his intention to remain in office to address pressing issues such as rising living costs and trade tensions with the United States. Internal pressures within the LDP for Ishiba's resignation are expected to intensify, and the possibility of forming new alliances or facing a no-confidence vote looms.

The loss of the upper house majority complicates the ruling coalition's ability to pass legislation and may lead to increased political instability. Opposition parties, including the Democratic Party for the People and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, have ruled out forming a coalition with the ruling camp, further challenging governance.

The 2025 House of Councillors election results reflect a significant shift in Japan's political dynamics, driven by economic concerns and the rise of nationalist sentiments. The coming months will be crucial in determining the stability of Ishiba's administration and the future direction of Japan's political landscape.