Japan's Ruling Coalition Loses Majority in Historic Electoral Shift

In a historic electoral shift, Japan's ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito, has lost its majority in the House of Councillors for the first time since the party's founding in 1955. The July 20, 2025, elections resulted in the coalition securing only 47 of the 125 contested seats, falling short of the 50 needed to maintain control. This outcome leaves the coalition with 122 seats in the 248-member chamber, below the 125-seat threshold required for a majority.

This defeat follows a similar loss in the lower house elections in October 2024, marking the first time the LDP has been a minority in both houses of parliament. The election results reflect growing public dissatisfaction over economic issues such as rising inflation and stagnant wages, as well as concerns about the government's handling of U.S. tariff threats.

Despite the setback, Prime Minister Ishiba has vowed to remain in office to address these pressing challenges. He emphasized his commitment to preventing political instability and continuing trade negotiations with the United States ahead of an August 1 tariff deadline. Economic Minister Ryosei Akazawa is currently in Washington seeking a deal to avert a 25% tariff on key imports.

The election also saw significant gains for populist and conservative parties like Sanseito, which increased its share of upper house seats from two to 14. Sanseito's platform, characterized by nationalist policies and stricter measures targeting foreign residents, has resonated with younger voters through effective social media campaigns. However, its hardline stance on foreigners has drawn criticism as being xenophobic.

The political instability raises concerns about Japan's ability to effectively address economic issues such as inflation and trade negotiations. The weakened mandate also limits Japan's diplomatic flexibility, particularly in negotiations with the United States. As the political landscape grows more fractured, the path forward for Japan's government remains uncertain.

Voter turnout stood at 58.51%, higher than the 52.05% recorded in the previous upper house election in 2022. This increased participation indicates a heightened public interest in the nation's political direction amid economic and social challenges.

As Prime Minister Ishiba navigates this complex landscape, the nation's approach to economic challenges and international relations hangs in the balance.