Oil Prices Projected to Remain Flat Through 2025 Amid Rising OPEC+ Production

Oil prices are projected to remain largely flat throughout 2025, according to a Reuters poll published on August 29, 2025. The survey of 31 economists and analysts forecasts Brent crude to average $67.65 per barrel this year, a slight decrease from July's estimate of $67.84. U.S. crude is expected to average $64.65 per barrel. Source: Reuters

Analysts attribute this stagnation to increased output from major producers, notably the OPEC+ alliance, which has been incrementally raising oil production throughout 2025. In July, the group announced a significant output increase, marking the third consecutive month of boosting production. Eight member nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, collectively raised output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), potentially adding up to 1.4 million bpd to global supply from April through July. Source: Financial Times

In August, OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production by 547,000 bpd for September, completing the unwinding of significant oil production cuts by September 2025. This move is part of a rapid reversal of a 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cut introduced to stabilize prices since 2022. Source: Reuters

Geopolitical uncertainties further complicate the price outlook. Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict add layers of unpredictability to the market. While global oil demand is projected to grow by 500,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, this increase may not suffice to offset the burgeoning supply. OPEC has adjusted its global oil demand forecast upward but has also trimmed its estimate for supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries, including the U.S. Source: Reuters

Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will decline to the low $50s per barrel by late 2026, mainly due to a rising oil surplus expected next year. The bank predicts an average surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, contributing to a significant increase of around 800 million barrels in global oil stocks by the end of 2026. Source: Reuters

The combination of rising OPEC+ production, modest demand growth, and geopolitical uncertainties suggests that oil prices are likely to remain stable, with a potential for surplus in the near future. This scenario could have several implications:

• Consumer Impact: Stable or declining oil prices may lead to lower gasoline prices, benefiting consumers globally.

• Energy Sector: Oil-producing companies may face reduced revenues, potentially impacting investment and employment within the sector.

• Global Economy: Countries heavily reliant on oil exports may experience economic challenges due to decreased revenues, while oil-importing nations could benefit from lower energy costs.