Atlantic Ocean's Crucial Current at Risk of Collapse by 2055, Study Warns

A recent study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans on September 5, 2025, indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a vital component of Earth's climate system, could begin collapsing as early as 2055. The potential collapse of this ocean current system may lead to severe global consequences, including drastic changes in weather patterns, sea-level rise, and disruptions to ecosystems.

The AMOC functions as a vast conveyor belt, transporting warm, salty surface waters from the tropics to the North Atlantic, where they cool, sink, and drive a deep return flow toward the equator. This process plays a pivotal role in regulating global climate by distributing heat and influencing weather patterns across continents. Notably, the AMOC contributes to the relatively mild winters experienced in Western Europe and affects precipitation patterns in regions such as the Sahel and the Amazon.

Researchers utilized 25 advanced climate models to identify a new indicator—the surface buoyancy flux—that helps determine when the AMOC might reach a tipping point. This flux, reflecting changes in ocean temperature and salinity, has increased since 2020, indicating that the AMOC is already weakening. Even under moderate emissions scenarios, the AMOC could collapse by 2063. The study emphasizes the urgency of reducing carbon emissions, highlighting that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is essential to potentially avert disaster. Although the collapse would unfold over decades, experts call the findings a "serious climate wake-up call" with far-reaching global implications.

The potential collapse of the AMOC carries severe global consequences:

• Europe: A significant weakening or collapse could lead to much colder and drier winters, particularly affecting regions like London. This shift would disrupt agriculture, infrastructure, and daily life. Researchers, including climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, suggest this could happen as early as 2057.

• North America: The U.S. East Coast has already experienced increased flooding over the past two decades, attributed to the AMOC's decline. A continued slowdown could exacerbate sea-level rise and intensify extreme weather events.

• Amazon Rainforest: Even a slight slowdown of the AMOC could significantly disrupt tropical rainfall, particularly over the Amazon rainforest. A weakened AMOC could reduce rainfall by up to 40% in parts of the Amazon, triggering severe droughts and threatening vital carbon sinks.

While the recent study presents alarming projections, the scientific community continues to debate the likelihood and timing of an AMOC collapse:

• A study published six months prior suggested that a total shutdown of the AMOC before 2100 is unlikely. Researchers from the UK Met Office and University of Exeter used simulations from 34 computer models, none of which predicted a complete collapse this century. However, the system is expected to weaken, which could still have significant climate impacts.

• Another study highlighted a newly discovered "back-up" system in the Arctic Ocean that may help maintain the AMOC despite the influx of freshwater from melting ice sheets. This alternative source appears to compensate for the decline in the Nordic Seas, potentially stabilizing the AMOC. However, concerns remain about whether the Arctic can generate the same extremely dense waters as the historically vital Greenland Sea.

The potential collapse of the AMOC poses profound societal challenges:

• Agriculture: Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns could disrupt crop yields, leading to food shortages and increased prices.

• Infrastructure: Increased flooding and extreme weather events could damage infrastructure, necessitating costly repairs and adaptations.

• Migration: Regions severely affected by climate shifts may experience population displacement, leading to increased migration and potential geopolitical tensions.

Paleoclimate evidence indicates that the AMOC has experienced significant changes in the past, often associated with abrupt climate shifts. However, the current rate of global warming and ice melt introduces unprecedented variables, making future projections more complex.

In conclusion, the recent study underscores the critical importance of the AMOC in global climate regulation and the potential catastrophic consequences of its collapse. While scientific opinions vary regarding the likelihood and timing of such an event, the consensus emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive climate action to mitigate these risks.