OPEC Maintains Oil Demand Forecasts Amid Production Increases and Price Declines

On September 11, 2025, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its Monthly Oil Market Report, maintaining its forecasts for global oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. OPEC projects an increase of 1.45 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 1.43 mb/d in 2026, attributing this steady outlook to robust economic performance and strong demand in sectors such as air travel and road transportation. (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report)

This decision coincides with OPEC+'s recent agreement to increase oil output quotas starting in October, aiming to reclaim market share. On September 7, 2025, OPEC+—the coalition of OPEC members and allied non-OPEC oil-producing countries—agreed to raise production from October by 137,000 barrels per day. This increase is smaller than previous monthly hikes, reflecting an anticipated weakening of global demand. (CNBC)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted a faster-than-expected rise in global oil supply, driven by the planned OPEC+ output increases. This projection suggests that the global oil market may experience a surplus, potentially impacting oil prices and market dynamics. (IEA - Oil Market Report)

The anticipated increase in oil supply, coupled with steady demand growth, has implications for global oil prices. Recent trends indicate a decline in oil prices due to concerns over oversupply and weakening demand in key markets like the United States. For instance, Brent crude dropped by 49 cents to $65.88 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell by 51 cents to $61.86. (CNBC)

Emma Mazhari, CEO of Oil Trading at Maersk, commented on the situation, stating, "There is a significant risk of declining oil prices due to minimal rise in global oil demand coupled with increased production from OPEC+." (CNBC)

Jim Burkhard, Head of Crude Oil Market Research at S&P Global, noted, "China's rapid increase in crude oil stockpiles has significantly helped offset excess global supply." (CNBC)

OPEC's demand forecasts are underpinned by expectations of robust economic growth. The global economy is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with significant contributions from major economies such as the United States, China, and India. This economic expansion is expected to drive increased energy consumption, particularly in transportation sectors. (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report)

Geopolitical events continue to influence the oil market. Recent incidents, such as the Israeli airstrike on Hamas leadership in Qatar and Poland intercepting Russian drones, have introduced volatility. However, these events have not significantly disrupted oil supply chains, and market fundamentals like oversupply are currently dominating price trends. (CNBC)

OPEC's decision to maintain its demand growth forecasts and OPEC+'s move to increase production quotas reflect a strategic approach to balancing supply and demand in the global oil market. However, the interplay of economic growth, production adjustments, and geopolitical factors will continue to shape market dynamics in the coming years.