WTO Report: AI to Revolutionize Global Trade by 2040

The World Trade Organization (WTO) released its annual World Trade Report on September 17, 2025, highlighting the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in global commerce. The report projects that AI could increase the value of global trade by 34–37% and boost global GDP by 12–13% by 2040. These gains are anticipated to result from reduced trade costs and enhanced productivity, particularly through innovations in logistics, compliance, and communication.

AI-driven translation technologies are highlighted as tools that can enable small producers to compete more effectively in international markets, potentially increasing export growth by up to 11% in low-income countries, provided there is significant improvement in digital infrastructure.

However, the WTO cautions that without inclusive policies and investments, AI could exacerbate existing social and economic inequalities. The report emphasizes the need for robust education, retraining, and social support systems to address potential job displacement resulting from AI integration. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated, "AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven."

The report underscores the importance of predictable trade rules and reduced tariffs on AI-critical raw materials, such as semiconductors, to ensure the widespread benefits of AI adoption. It also highlights the need for open and predictable trade policies, noting that the number of quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods has climbed sharply over time, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, driven by high- and upper middle-income economies. Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45% in some low-income economies.

This report is released amid growing challenges to the multilateral trading system, including rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. The ongoing political backlash against trade has much to do with underinvestment in education, skills, retraining, and social safety nets during these past three or four decades of globalization. The WTO emphasizes that we cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI.

The full report is available on the WTO's official website.