Carlyle Group Steps in with Alternative U.S. Economic Data Amid Government Shutdown

As the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, 2025, halts the release of official economic data, the Carlyle Group has stepped in to provide alternative insights into the nation's economic health. On October 7, the global investment firm released proprietary U.S. economic indicators derived from its extensive portfolio, offering a rare glimpse into key economic metrics during this period of uncertainty.

The Carlyle Group, managing $465 billion in assets as of June 30, 2025, operates across sectors including technology, infrastructure, energy, healthcare, consumer, and industrials. Its portfolio comprises 277 active companies and 694 real estate investments, collectively employing nearly 730,000 individuals worldwide. Leveraging this vast dataset, Carlyle has developed indicators that serve as proxies for official economic statistics.

According to Carlyle's report, U.S. employers added 17,000 jobs in September, a figure significantly below the anticipated 54,000. The report also indicates an annualized GDP growth rate of 2.7%, a 3.8% decline in energy prices, and a 3.3% increase in services prices excluding shelter. Additionally, real private construction spending declined by 2.5% compared to the previous year, while business investment rose by 4.8% on a three-month moving average seasonally adjusted annual rate, driven primarily by technology and AI-related capital expenditures.

Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at Carlyle, commented on the findings:

"Corporate spending, particularly in technology and AI infrastructure, continues to power growth while household consumption ends the quarter on a high note. Combined, this suggests a U.S. economy growing faster than estimates of its long-term potential."

The government shutdown has led to the suspension of operations at various federal agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), resulting in delays of key economic data releases such as the monthly jobs report and inflation data. This absence of official statistics poses challenges for policymakers and investors who rely on timely data to make informed decisions.

The release of Carlyle's proprietary indicators underscores the growing role of private sector data in economic analysis, especially during periods when official data is unavailable. While such data can provide valuable insights, it also raises questions about transparency, methodology, and potential biases. The significant discrepancy between Carlyle's reported job additions and the anticipated figures highlights the potential volatility and uncertainty in the labor market.

In conclusion, Carlyle's initiative offers a unique perspective on the U.S. economy amid the government shutdown. While private sector data can be invaluable during periods of official data unavailability, it also prompts discussions about the reliability and role of such information in shaping economic narratives.