US Consumer Confidence Declines Again: Economic and Political Uncertainties Weigh

In October 2025, the Conference Board reported a decline in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) to 94.6, down from 95.6 in September. This marks the third consecutive monthly decrease and the lowest level in six months, indicating growing consumer apprehension about future economic conditions.

The Present Situation Index, which assesses consumers' views on current business and labor market conditions, rose by 1.8 points to 129.3. However, the Expectations Index, reflecting consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell by 2.9 points to 71.5. Notably, the Expectations Index has remained below the threshold of 80 since February 2025, a level that often signals a potential recession.

Survey responses highlighted that inflation and prices continue to be primary concerns among consumers. Mentions of tariffs have decreased but remain elevated. Additionally, references to U.S. politics, including the ongoing government shutdown, have increased, indicating growing apprehension about political factors affecting the economy.

The decline in consumer confidence was not uniform across all demographics. Confidence decreased among consumers under 35 and those over 55, while it improved among those aged 35 to 54. Confidence fell for consumers earning less than $75,000 annually but improved for those earning more, with the most significant increase among individuals earning over $200,000. Confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats, and slightly decreased among Republicans.

Several economic indicators provide context to the decline in consumer confidence. In September, consumer prices increased by 3% from a year earlier, up from 2.9% in August, primarily due to rising gas prices. Job gains have slowed considerably, with only 22,000 positions added in August. The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, the highest since 2021. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates again amid concerns about labor market softness. Major companies such as Amazon, Target, Meta, and Starbucks have announced significant job cuts.

The continued decline in consumer confidence underscores the complex interplay of economic and political factors influencing American consumers. Addressing these concerns is crucial for stabilizing consumer sentiment and fostering economic growth.