ADP Launches Weekly Employment Estimates Amidst U.S. Government Shutdown

In response to the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, which has halted the release of official economic data, Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) has initiated a weekly preliminary estimate of U.S. private payroll employment. The first report, released on October 28, 2025, indicates an average increase of 14,250 jobs during the four weeks ending October 11.

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unable to publish its monthly employment reports due to the shutdown, ADP's new weekly data aims to provide a timely snapshot of the private-sector labor market. However, economists caution that while these private reports offer valuable insights, they cannot fully replace official data due to differences in scope and methodology.

ADP's Role in Employment Reporting

ADP, a global leader in human resources and payroll solutions, has been publishing the monthly ADP National Employment Report for nearly two decades. This report, developed in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, serves as an independent measure of the labor market based on anonymized weekly payroll data from over 26 million private-sector employees in the United States.

The new weekly preliminary estimate, released every Tuesday starting October 28, provides a four-week moving average to offer a more current and representative view of the private-sector labor market. The first release indicated an average increase of 14,250 jobs during the four weeks ending October 11.

Context: U.S. Government Shutdown and Data Blackout

The U.S. federal government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, due to a budget impasse between Senate Republicans and Democrats. The main point of contention is funding for a Medicare extension favored by Democrats but opposed by Republicans due to its long-term cost. The shutdown has left around 620,000 of the 2.2 million federal workers furloughed, a number expected to rise as more agencies exhaust reserve funds.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the ongoing shutdown could cost the U.S. economy between $7 billion and $14 billion, depending on its duration. The shutdown has also led to a suspension of in-person data collection by the BLS, which is essential for compiling the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the main measure of inflation. Without new data, the Federal Reserve lacks critical insights needed to guide policy decisions, potentially affecting interest rate adjustments and other economic policies.

Economists' Perspectives on Private Data Sources

While ADP's new weekly report provides valuable insights into private-sector employment trends, economists caution that private reports cannot fully replace official data due to differences in scope and methodology. For instance, ADP's data may not capture government employment figures, and its methodology may differ from that of the BLS, leading to potential discrepancies.

JP Morgan economist Abiel Reinhart noted that while ADP and official BLS data often differ notably, the weekly estimate is a positive update following September's weak figures.

Implications and Conclusion

ADP's introduction of a weekly employment report provides a timely, albeit partial, view of the private-sector labor market amid a significant government data blackout. While this initiative offers valuable insights, it also underscores the challenges and limitations of relying solely on private data sources for comprehensive economic analysis.