UNEP Report Warns Climate Pledges Fall Short of Paris Goals

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its Emissions Gap Report 2025, revealing that current global climate pledges are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's targets. The report indicates that, even with full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the world is on track for a temperature rise of 2.3–2.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, significantly exceeding the 1.5°C goal. This projection represents only a slight improvement from the previous year's estimate of 2.6–2.8°C. The report also highlights that only about a third of the parties to the Paris Agreement submitted new NDCs by the September 30, 2025, deadline, underscoring a lack of ambition and action among nations. UNEP warns that without unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world is heading toward a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.

The Emissions Gap Report 2025, titled "Off Target," assesses the disparity between current greenhouse gas emissions projections and the reductions necessary to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. The report finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of NDCs, are now 2.3–2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6–2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report. However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, "Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, nations have had three attempts to hit the mark with their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): their initial pledges, updates in 2020 and this year’s round of new pledges ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil. Each time, countries have collectively landed off target; each time, they have left the world on course for an intensification of the climate crisis."

The report underscores the need for immediate and substantial action to bridge the emissions gap. Reductions to annual emissions of 35% and 55%, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them, and a challenging political climate, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will happen, very likely within the next decade.

The findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2025 have profound implications for societies worldwide. A projected temperature rise of 2.3–2.5°C could lead to more frequent and severe climate-related events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. The escalation of climate risks may result in significant economic losses due to damage to infrastructure, reduced agricultural yields, and increased healthcare costs associated with climate-related illnesses. The report underscores the need for stronger political will and international cooperation to enhance NDCs and implement effective climate policies.

Established in 1972, UNEP is the leading global environmental authority within the United Nations system. Its mission is to provide leadership and encourage partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations. UNEP's Emissions Gap Report is an annual publication that assesses the gap between anticipated emissions and the levels consistent with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals.

Adopted in 2015, the Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. To achieve this, countries submit NDCs, which are national plans outlining climate actions, including targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Parties are expected to update their NDCs every five years to reflect increased ambition over time.

The Emissions Gap Report 2025 indicates a slight improvement from the previous year's estimate of a 2.6–2.8°C temperature rise. However, this progress is insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's goals. The persistent gap between current commitments and necessary reductions highlights the ongoing challenge in mobilizing global action to combat climate change.

As the world approaches the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, the findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2025 serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for enhanced climate commitments. Without unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world is heading toward a serious escalation of climate risks and damages. The time for action is now.