U.S. Holiday Retail Sales Projected to Surpass $1 Trillion for First Time

For the first time, U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF forecasts that consumer spending during November and December 2025 will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% over the previous year, reaching a total between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. (nrf.com)

This milestone reflects the resilience of American consumers amid economic challenges such as inflation, trade tariffs, and a government shutdown. However, the anticipated growth rate is slightly lower than the 4.3% increase observed in 2024, indicating a more cautious consumer environment. (reuters.com)

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay commented, "American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity." (nrf.com)

The NRF's projections are based on various economic indicators, including employment, wages, and retail sales data. Despite economic uncertainties, consumer resilience remains evident. NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews noted, "The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation." (nrf.com)

Retailers anticipate hiring between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, a decrease from 442,000 in 2024. This reduction aligns with a slower-paced labor market and reflects retailers' cautious approach amid economic uncertainties. Mathews added that while seasonal hiring normally supports the job market this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October. (nrf.com)

Other forecasts from organizations like Mastercard, Deloitte, and Adobe support modest sales growth, albeit slower than recent years. Mastercard’s 2025 holiday forecast predicts a slowdown in U.S. retail sales growth compared to the previous year, reflecting consumer caution amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. Retail sales are expected to rise 3.6% from November 1 to December 24, down from 4.1% in 2024. (reuters.com)

The projected milestone of surpassing $1 trillion in holiday sales is significant. In 2024, holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion. The anticipated growth in 2025, despite economic challenges, underscores the resilience of the retail sector and consumer spending habits. (nrf.com)

While the NRF's forecast of surpassing $1 trillion in holiday sales is a historic milestone, the slightly lower growth rate compared to previous years indicates a more cautious consumer environment. Retailers and consumers alike are navigating a complex economic landscape, balancing optimism with prudence as the holiday season approaches.