UNEP Emissions Gap Report Warns of Imminent 1.5°C Global Warming Threshold Breach

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its annual Emissions Gap Report, revealing that the world is on track to exceed the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold within the next decade. The report underscores the urgent need for accelerated and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the impending climate crisis.

Despite international efforts under the Paris Agreement, the UNEP report indicates that current policies and pledges are insufficient to prevent a significant overshoot of the 1.5°C target. The report projects that even with full implementation of existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global temperatures are expected to rise by 2.3–2.5°C by the end of the century. Under current policies, this increase could reach up to 2.8°C.

To align with the Paris Agreement's goals, the report emphasizes that annual emissions need to be reduced by 35% and 55% compared to 2019 levels by 2035 to meet the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively. Given the magnitude of these cuts and the limited time frame, exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is highly likely within the next decade.

Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, stated, "Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, nations have had three attempts to hit the mark with their Nationally Determined Contributions... Each time, countries have collectively landed off target; each time, they have left the world on course for an intensification of the climate crisis."

The report also highlights that methodological updates account for a 0.1°C improvement in projections. However, the anticipated withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is expected to negate this progress, underscoring the minimal impact of new NDCs.

Surpassing the 1.5°C threshold is expected to intensify climate-related risks, including extreme heat events, loss of sea ice, degradation of coral reefs, and thawing of permafrost. These impacts will disproportionately affect vulnerable nations and communities, exacerbating existing inequalities and posing significant challenges to global health, food security, and economic stability.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, ahead of the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, declared it a "COP of Truth," emphasizing the need for meaningful action and accountability. He proposed the creation of a new UN-linked environmental council to monitor countries' compliance with climate agreements.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, temperature projections have decreased from an anticipated rise of 3–3.5°C to current estimates of 2.3–2.5°C. This improvement is attributed to the increased adoption of low-carbon technologies, particularly in wind and solar energy, which have become more cost-effective and widespread.

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 serves as a critical call to action for the global community. With the 1.5°C threshold likely to be breached within the next decade, it is imperative for nations to implement more ambitious and immediate measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The upcoming COP30 summit presents a pivotal opportunity for world leaders to commit to decisive actions that can alter the current trajectory and mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change.