Iceland Declares AMOC Collapse a National Security Threat

In November 2025, Iceland's National Security Council officially classified the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a national security threat, marking the first time the nation has recognized a climate-related phenomenon as an existential risk.

The AMOC is a critical Atlantic Ocean current that transports warm tropical waters northward, significantly influencing Europe's climate by keeping winters mild. Recent scientific findings indicate that accelerated Arctic ice melt and increased freshwater influx from Greenland could disrupt this current. Such a disruption might lead to severe winter conditions in Northern Europe, alter global rainfall patterns, and hasten Antarctic ice melt.

Iceland's Climate Minister, Johann Pall Johannsson, emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, "It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security." He further noted that this is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.

In response, the Icelandic government is coordinating disaster preparedness efforts and assessing impacts across sectors such as food and energy security, infrastructure, and international transport. Johannsson highlighted the urgency, saying, "Sea ice could affect marine transport; extreme weather could severely affect our capabilities to maintain any agriculture and fisheries."

The potential collapse of the AMOC could have profound implications for Iceland and the broader region. These include severe winter conditions, disruption of fisheries, infrastructure challenges, and economic impacts. Historically, the AMOC has collapsed notably before the last Ice Age.

Other Northern European nations are also taking note. Ireland's weather service has briefed the country's prime minister and a parliamentary committee on the issue. Norway's environment ministry is seeking to deepen its understanding through new research. The UK is investing heavily in climate tipping point studies.

Experts emphasize the urgency in addressing the issue, as the window to act may be closing rapidly due to ongoing global warming. Oceanographer and climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf stated, "The science is evolving quite rapidly and it is crucial to act before it's too late."

Iceland's proactive stance underscores the interconnectedness of climate change and national security. This development highlights the need for comprehensive strategies that address the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures and international collaboration.