Arctic Blast Set to End Record Warm Spell, Bringing Dangerous Cold to Much of U.S.

The same balmy air that sent Houstonians jogging in shorts and T‑shirts this month is about to give way to a blast from the Arctic.

After a stretch of record and near‑record warmth across large parts of the Lower 48, federal forecasters say a series of sharp cold waves will spill out of Canada beginning around Jan. 15, gripping the central and eastern United States with some of the harshest conditions of the winter so far.

The shift marks an abrupt turn from a holiday and early‑January pattern that pushed temperatures 15 to 30 degrees above normal in many cities, to one that is expected to drive readings 10 to 20 degrees below average for millions of people from the Dakotas to the Carolinas and New England. Wind chills in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains could plummet to dangerous levels.

“This record‑breaking warm spell is ending as a series of Arctic cold waves is forecast to hit the central and eastern parts of the country,” the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang reported Wednesday, summarizing a consensus emerging from federal and private forecasters.

At the center of the change is a familiar but often misunderstood feature of the atmosphere: the polar vortex.

Cold waves lining up

The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service, expects below‑normal temperatures to dominate much of the northern and eastern United States from Jan. 19 through at least Jan. 27. In its latest 6‑ to 10‑day outlook, the center shaded a broad swath from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid‑Atlantic, Southeast and Florida in blue, indicating elevated odds of colder than usual conditions.

In a discussion issued Monday, forecasters said “subnormal temperatures expand southward out of Canada across the northern tier,” while warmer‑than‑normal weather clings to the West and Southwest. A deeper trough in the jet stream is forecast to shift from the western into the central and eastern United States, a classic setup for Arctic air to surge south.

The Weather Prediction Center, which handles national‑scale storm and hazard forecasts, expects a broad dip in the jet stream to dominate from Jan. 17 to 21, accompanied by strong cold fronts and high winds sweeping across the Plains and Midwest. The agency is also highlighting the potential for a significant high‑wind event in parts of the northern and central Plains late this week, raising the risk of blizzard‑like conditions where snow is present and intensifying the cold through wind chill.

Local National Weather Service offices are already sounding the alarm.

Near Detroit, forecasters said the “next chance of snow” Wednesday and Wednesday night will arrive “as Arctic air moves into the region,” adding that “much colder conditions persist through the end of the week.” In Georgia, the Weather Service office serving Atlanta warned of two upper‑level troughs diving south from Canada, with the second “having the greatest potential to bring deeper Arctic air” into the state.

Freezing temperatures are expected to reach well into the Gulf Coast states. In Florida, forecast models show lows potentially dipping into the upper 20s in parts of the interior—an unusual chill for a state that saw beach weather earlier this month.

From springlike to subzero

The impending freeze follows a remarkably warm start to winter in much of the country.

From late December through the first days of January, temperatures across the West and central United States ran far above seasonal norms. Climate analysts found that for the Dec. 20 to Jan. 4 period, many locations recorded their warmest such stretch on record, often by margins of several degrees.

Houston, for example, saw an average high of 78.3 degrees from Jan. 1 to 9, about 16 degrees above its long‑term norm. Local media described it as the warmest start to a year the city has ever recorded.

A separate analysis by Climate Central, a nonprofit research group, estimated that holiday highs in parts of the country were 20 to 35 degrees above the 1991‑2020 climate normal, and that human‑caused climate change had made such warmth several times more likely.

Now, as a colder pattern takes hold, thermometers in the Upper Midwest are expected to plunge below zero, with daytime highs struggling to climb out of the single digits or teens. In those latitudes, even a light wind can push apparent temperatures into the minus‑20s or worse, prompting wind chill advisories and warnings.

Similar outbreaks in recent winters have led the Weather Service to warn that frostbite can occur on exposed skin in as little as 10 to 20 minutes when wind chills drop below 20 or 30 degrees below zero.

The polar vortex, explained

Meteorologists link the turnabout to a rearrangement of the upper‑level winds encircling the Northern Hemisphere.

The polar vortex is “a wide expanse of swirling cold air” and low pressure usually centered over the Arctic, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains in an educational brief. It resides mainly high in the atmosphere and is distinct from the polar jet stream, the fast‑moving river of air that steers storms closer to the surface.

Under some conditions, that vortex can weaken, shift or split. When that happens, NOAA’s Climate.gov notes, the jet stream can become “extremely wavy,” allowing warm air to flow into parts of the Arctic and lobes of bitterly cold air to spill south into North America, Europe or Asia.

This winter, forecasters say, a strong dome of high pressure over the North Pacific and western Alaska is helping carve out a downstream trough over the continental United States. The Washington Post reported that the polar vortex “hasn't fully recovered since a rare disruption in late November,” making it easier for Arctic air masses to escape their usual confines.

At the same time, much of the West and Southwest is expected to remain under a ridge of high pressure that favors continued warmth. Alaska, outside its Panhandle, is also forecast to stay milder than normal as the Lower 48’s eastern half freezes, an example of the atmosphere’s tendency to balance extremes across regions.

Cold in a hot climate

The developing cold wave comes less than a year after a similar pattern shocked much of the country. In January 2025, the contiguous United States recorded its coldest January since 1988, with a prolonged polar‑vortex‑driven chill and multiple winter storms.

Globally, though, that same month was the warmest January on record, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. And for all of 2025, the United States logged its fourth‑warmest year on record, with the western third of the country posting its warmest year ever.

Those contrasts underscore what climate scientists have stressed for years: isolated cold outbreaks do not contradict the broader trend of planetary warming. They are weather events playing out on a warmer baseline.

Researchers are still debating how, and whether, rapid Arctic warming is altering the behavior of the polar vortex and jet stream in a way that could affect mid‑latitude cold extremes. Some studies suggest a link between a less stable vortex and more frequent or persistent winter cold spells in parts of North America and Eurasia. Others find weaker or inconsistent signals. NOAA has cautioned that the connection “remains an area of active research.”

Power, people and pipes

Even without scientific consensus on long‑term trends, the practical stakes of the upcoming chill are clear.

Arctic outbreaks typically send heating demand surging, driving up natural gas and electricity use. Analysts partly blamed a cold 2025 winter, along with other factors, for a rebound in U.S. carbon emissions after several years of declines. Grid operators from Texas to New England are under pressure to show they have fortified their systems since previous failures.

In 2021, an extended freeze in Texas contributed to a near‑collapse of the state's power grid, leaving millions without electricity or heat and leading to more than 200 deaths, according to state and federal reviews. Regulators and utilities say they have since added weatherization and reserve capacity, but consumer advocates and some lawmakers continue to question whether those steps are sufficient as demand grows.

Public health officials are preparing, too. Unhoused people, elderly residents and low‑income households in drafty housing are among the most vulnerable to prolonged cold. Cities often expand shelter capacity and open warming centers when temperatures plunge. Emergency rooms typically see upticks in hypothermia, frostbite, carbon monoxide poisoning from improper heater use, and cardiac events from shoveling snow.

Transportation and infrastructure can also suffer. Rapid temperature drops after rain can produce black ice on roads. Prolonged cold can freeze water mains and home plumbing, especially in the South, where pipes are less likely to be buried deep or insulated.

Farmers and ranchers in the Plains and Midwest are likely to face stress on winter wheat, livestock and equipment. Cattle require more feed and shelter in subzero conditions; calves can be especially vulnerable in high winds and blowing snow.

A divided map

As the pattern settles in, the nation is likely to experience a split‑screen winter: snow showers and subzero wind chills in the Great Lakes and Northeast, crisp sunshine and comparatively mild temperatures in California and the Desert Southwest.

For residents in the path of the Arctic air, the advice from forecasters is conventional but urgent: check on neighbors, dress in layers, protect pets and pipes, and prepare for hazardous travel.

The polar vortex itself sits thousands of miles away, invisible to the naked eye. But over the next two weeks, the consequences of its latest wobble will be hard to miss on the ground.