China Posts Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus in 2025 as Exports Surge and Imports Stall

On a gray January morning in Beijing, China’s top customs officials stepped before the cameras with a number that reverberated far beyond the briefing room: in 2025, China amassed a goods trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion, the largest ever recorded by any country.

Data released Jan. 14 by the General Administration of Customs showed exports last year climbed to $3.77 trillion, up 5.5% from 2024, while imports were roughly flat at $2.58 trillion. The gap between the two — a surplus of about $1.19 trillion — was roughly equivalent to the annual economic output of Saudi Arabia and pushed global trade imbalances deeper into uncharted territory.

“In 2025, the total value of imports and exports exceeded 45 trillion yuan, reaching a record high,” Wang Jun, a vice minister at the customs agency, told reporters at the State Council Information Office. “Our country will continue to maintain its position as the world’s largest trader in goods.”

Behind the headline figure is a stark paradox. China is shipping out record volumes of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and high‑tech equipment even as its own economy grapples with a prolonged property slump, weak consumer confidence and deflationary pressures that have kept domestic demand subdued and imports barely growing. Exports to the United States have dropped sharply under higher tariffs, but shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe have accelerated instead.

The result is a surplus that underscores the enduring strength of the world’s largest manufacturing base — and the growing discomfort among its major trading partners.

Record numbers, shifting markets

In value terms, China’s total goods trade — exports plus imports — reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, equivalent to about $6.35 trillion at average exchange rates. Customs data showed exports rose 6.1% in yuan terms, while imports edged up just 0.5%.

It was the ninth consecutive year that China’s total goods trade increased, cementing its status as the top global trader. The surplus jumped roughly 20% from the previous year’s record of about $992 billion and broke through the $1 trillion mark for the first time.

The geographic breakdown illustrates how China’s exporters have adapted to mounting trade barriers in the United States.

Exports to the U.S. fell about 20% in 2025, according to the customs data, while China’s imports from the U.S. declined by roughly 14% to 15%. The United States now accounts for about 11% of China’s exports, down from significantly higher shares a decade ago, and bilateral trade in goods totaled about 4.01 trillion yuan, or 8.8% of China’s overall trade.

Yet overall exports still rose, driven by other markets. Sales to the European Union increased by around 8% to 9%, expanding China’s surplus with Europe. Exports to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations grew by more than 13%, while shipments to Africa surged by roughly a quarter and those to Latin America rose by about 7%.

Trade with countries participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative totaled 23.6 trillion yuan, up 6.3% from a year earlier and accounting for 51.9% of China’s total trade — the second consecutive year that Belt and Road partners made up more than half of China’s goods commerce.

Customs officials highlighted that China now conducts trade with 249 countries and regions and that imports and exports increased with 190 of them in 2025, a sign, they said, of greater diversification away from traditional markets.

“External trade is becoming more diversified,” Wang said, adding that flows to many developing economies along the Belt and Road corridors showed “relatively fast growth.”

From cheap goods to green tech

The sectoral data underscore how much China’s export engine has shifted from low‑cost consumer products toward higher‑value industrial and green technologies that are simultaneously central to global climate goals and Western industrial strategies.

High‑tech goods exports rose 13.2% last year to 5.25 trillion yuan, customs figures showed. Exports of what Chinese officials call the “new three” — electric vehicles, solar cells and lithium batteries — jumped 27.1%. Shipments of wind turbines increased nearly 50%, while exports of industrial robots and advanced machinery also saw strong gains, turning China into a net exporter of industrial robots for the first time.

Auto exports, buoyed by battery‑powered models, climbed about 21% to more than 7 million vehicles, according to industry and customs data, further entrenching China as a major supplier of cars to Europe, Russia, the Middle East and emerging markets.

Chinese state media and officials have presented the figures as evidence that the country’s manufacturing sector is moving “toward new and better” products and that industrial policy support for electric vehicles, renewable energy equipment and high‑end machinery is paying off.

At the same time, many economists point to the role of excess capacity and falling factory‑gate prices in powering China’s export surge. With domestic demand weak and production lines built in anticipation of continued rapid growth, manufacturers in fields from batteries to solar panels have turned to overseas markets and cut prices to keep plants running at high utilization rates.

Warning signs from the IMF

International financial institutions have warned that a surplus of this magnitude, in an economy the size of China’s, risks destabilizing the global system.

“China is now too big to rely on exports as a source for growth,” International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in December, ahead of the full‑year customs release. “Continuing to depend on export-led growth risks furthering global trade tensions.”

In its latest Article IV review of China’s economy, published in December, the IMF said “imbalances remain significant” and noted that growth was being held back by weak consumption, a slow‑moving property correction and deflationary pressures. The fund urged Beijing to do more to strengthen household incomes and expand the social safety net to support a shift toward consumption‑driven growth, which could also help reduce China’s external surplus over time.

For now, however, exports remain a key engine. With the real estate sector under strain and local governments heavily indebted, Beijing has leaned on industrial upgrading, infrastructure and foreign sales to support growth. The IMF projects China’s economy grew around 5% in 2025 and will slow to about 4.5% this year.

Trade tensions with U.S. and Europe

The trade data land amid escalating frictions with China’s largest developed‑world partners, particularly over green and high‑tech industries.

In the United States, President Joe Biden last year raised tariffs on a range of Chinese imports, including lifting duties on electric vehicles to 100% and imposing higher levies on solar cells, batteries and certain critical minerals. After returning to office in 2025, former President Donald Trump has pursued additional measures targeting Chinese goods, building on the sweeping tariffs he first introduced in 2018.

Despite those moves, the overall impact has been to redirect rather than reduce China’s exports, analysts say, as companies adjust supply chains, ship more goods through third countries and deepen ties with emerging markets.

In Europe, the European Commission has launched an anti‑subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, arguing that state support and industrial overcapacity allow Chinese manufacturers to sell cars in the EU at artificially low prices. Brussels has signaled that provisional tariffs could follow, while Chinese officials have criticized the probe as “selective” and contrary to World Trade Organization rules.

European business groups and policymakers have also voiced concern that China’s growing surplus and what they describe as limited market access for foreign firms reflect a lack of progress in rebalancing its economy.

Global winners and losers

The effects of China’s export boom are uneven.

In advanced economies, automakers, solar panel producers and battery manufacturers face intensified competition from Chinese imports, fueling demands for trade remedies and subsidies. Labor unions and some politicians in the United States and Europe warn that an influx of low‑priced Chinese products threatens manufacturing jobs and undermines efforts to rebuild domestic industrial capacity.

At the same time, consumers and installers benefit from cheaper vehicles and clean‑energy equipment, potentially accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels.

Many developing countries are emerging as major customers for Chinese goods. In Southeast Asia, Chinese‑made cars, construction machinery and electronics have become more prominent. In Africa and Latin America, Chinese solar kits, buses and heavy equipment are increasingly used in infrastructure and energy projects.

Those ties can bring more affordable technology and financing, but they also raise concerns among some local officials and economists that fledgling industries may struggle to compete with Chinese suppliers.

A number with global implications

Domestically, China’s government has portrayed the record surplus as a sign that its economy remains resilient despite what it describes as attempts by some Western countries to “contain” its rise. Wang said 2025’s performance showed that, “facing a complex and severe external environment,” China’s economy had “forged ahead under pressure” and that goods trade had demonstrated “strong resilience and vitality.”

Outside China, the reaction has been more cautious. For trading partners already running large deficits or trying to nurture their own green‑tech sectors, a $1.2 trillion surplus concentrated in strategic industries poses difficult choices: whether to accept a greater dependence on Chinese supply, or to respond with higher barriers and more state support at home.

How Beijing manages its domestic slowdown, and how Washington, Brussels and capitals across the Global South react to China’s export strength, will help determine whether the next phase of globalization becomes more fragmented and protectionist or remains open enough to absorb the output of the world’s largest factory floor.